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Market Impact: 0.6

Hog Losses Continue on Thursday

CMENDAQ
Commodities & Raw MaterialsCommodity FuturesEconomic Data
Hog Losses Continue on Thursday

Lean hog futures experienced broad downward pressure on Thursday, with contracts falling 60 cents to $1.75, while USDA's national base hog price dropped $2.72 to $96.33 and the CME Lean Hog Index declined 72 cents. The pork cutout value also decreased by $1.71 to $102.11, primarily driven by lower belly prices, coinciding with a robust federally inspected hog slaughter of 1.946 million head for the week, exceeding both the prior week and year, indicating ample supply impacting market prices.

Analysis

Lean hog futures experienced significant downward pressure on Thursday, with contracts closing down 60 cents to $1.75. This decline was mirrored in the USDA's national base hog price, which fell $2.72 to $96.33, and the CME Lean Hog Index, which decreased 72 cents to $100.70. The broad-based weakness indicates a bearish shift in market sentiment for hog products. The pork cutout value also declined by $1.71 to $102.11 per cwt, primarily driven by a substantial $6.36 drop in belly prices, despite modest gains in loin, butt, and picnic primals. This specific weakness in a key primal suggests shifting consumer demand or oversupply in certain product categories. Contributing to the bearish trend is the robust supply, with federally inspected hog slaughter estimated at 1.946 million head for the week. This figure represents a 7,000-head increase from the prior week and is 19,617 head larger than the same week last year, signaling ample availability that is likely pressuring prices across the futures curve, as evidenced by declines in Oct 25, Dec 25, and Feb 26 contracts.

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Market Sentiment

Overall Sentiment

strongly negative

Sentiment Score

-0.70

Ticker Sentiment

CME-0.20
NDAQ0.00

Key Decisions for Investors

  • Investors should monitor the lean hog futures curve for continued weakness, particularly in deferred contracts, given the current supply dynamics and bearish sentiment.
  • Evaluate exposure to pork processors and related agricultural commodities, as sustained low hog prices could impact their input costs or profit margins.
  • Observe upcoming USDA slaughter reports and pork cutout values for any signs of demand recovery or supply adjustments, especially focusing on the performance of key primals like bellies.