Palantir & IBM Take Beating, Tech Sheds Workers, Guy in Iran to Watch

The market is telling you this is not a clean de-risking trade; it is a rotation from duration-sensitive software into cash-generative semis and defensives, with geopolitics adding a second layer of asymmetry. The software leg looks vulnerable because these companies have been priced on multiple expansion and AI optionality, so even “good” execution can fail if investors decide to de-emphasize long-dated growth in a higher-risk macro tape. That makes the recent selloff in PLTR/NOW/ORCL less about one quarter and more about whether the market is willing to pay for promised productivity gains before those gains show up in margins.

On the winner side, the semis strength is more durable than the headline move suggests because it is tied to inventory, automotive/industrial exposure, and AI-adjacent analog demand rather than pure hype. TXN and ON should benefit from any stabilization in industrial production and from investors rotating toward names with better free-cash-flow visibility; INTC’s better print matters less for absolute earnings power than for sentiment spillover across domestic silicon supply chains and AI compute capex. AMD likely benefits tactically from the same read-through, but it remains more exposed to multiple compression if rates volatility returns.

Geopolitics creates a near-term oil/transportation risk premium, but the bigger implication is that it can keep volatility elevated enough to suppress software multiples and delay the market’s appetite for speculative growth. If the Middle East situation de-escalates quickly, the sector rotation can reverse fast; if it persists, investors will likely continue favoring energy- and hard-asset-linked earnings over narrative-driven software. The key contrarian point is that the software drawdown may be overdone if guidance is intact and headcount cuts translate into visible margin leverage over the next two quarters; however, that requires proof, not promises.