4 Cold-Weather Stocks to Buy as Winter Spending Heats Up

The winter retail sector presents a mixed investment outlook, despite National Retail Federation projections for over $1 trillion in holiday sales. Deckers Outdoor, Columbia Sportswear, and VF Corp are grappling with significant tariff headwinds that have impacted their 2025 stock performance, though analysts project future upside for these companies, with VF Corp also planning a debt-reducing asset sale. Conversely, luxury brand Canada Goose has seen stock appreciation but contends with concerns over weak demand and potential privatization, highlighting varied challenges and opportunities across the segment.

Analysis

Despite National Retail Federation (NRF) projections for a 3.7% to 4.2% increase in November-December retail sales, exceeding $1 trillion, the winter retail sector presents a complex investment landscape. Several key players, including Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Columbia Sportswear (COLM), and VF Corp (VFC), are significantly impacted by tariff headwinds, with Deckers anticipating a $150 million burden in FY2026 and Columbia expecting $35-40 million in its current fiscal year. This has contributed to DECK's 58.5% and COLM's 35% stock declines in 2025, despite some companies like DECK posting solid earnings.

Deckers Outdoor, trading at 14x forward earnings with over 12% expected growth, holds a consensus price target of $118.11, suggesting a 40% upside from its November 13th price, indicating potential undervaluation. Columbia Sportswear, also facing tariffs, has a $60.54 price target, representing a 10% increase, and offers a 2.2% dividend yield with a safe payout ratio. Both companies' stock performance suggests investor concern over the duration of tariff impacts.

Conversely, Canada Goose (GOOS) has seen its stock rise over 32% in 2025, despite missing top and bottom-line estimates due to elevated expenses and weak demand concerns. VF Corp (VFC), down over 25% for the year, has recently climbed following earnings and plans to sell its Dickies brand for $600 million to reduce debt, with analysts forecasting over 48% earnings growth and a price target suggesting a modest 6% upside, appealing to contrarian investors. The varied performance and outlooks underscore a bifurcated market within winter retail.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider Deckers Outdoor (DECK) and Columbia Sportswear (COLM) for potential value, given their significant 2025 stock declines, analyst price targets indicating substantial upside, and current valuation multiples, while closely monitoring tariff mitigation strategies.
• Evaluate VF Corp (VFC) as a contrarian play, recognizing its strategic asset sale aimed at debt reduction and strong projected earnings growth, despite ongoing tariff challenges.
• Approach Canada Goose (GOOS) with caution, balancing its 2025 stock appreciation and growth forecasts against persistent concerns regarding weak demand and potential privatization.
• Monitor broader retail spending trends, particularly the NRF holiday sales data, and company-specific updates on tariff impacts and cost management for sector-wide insights.