‘Accounting is absolutely a profession, full stop’: AICPA president pushes back after Education Department reclassifies accounting degrees

The Department of Education’s RISE committee proposed draft regulations that exclude accounting (and several other fields) from the list of graduate “professional” degrees for federal student-loan purposes, which would limit students in non‑professional programs to $20,500 per year and $100,000 total versus $50,000 per year and $200,000 total for listed professional fields. The AICPA, NASBA, AAA and state societies have formally objected, warning the change—effective July 2026 pending comments—could reduce enrollment in master’s and doctoral accounting programs, exacerbate funding shortfalls given typical MAcc tuition of $25,000–$70,000, push students toward higher‑cost private loans, and ultimately shrink the pipeline of accounting faculty and professionals.

Analysis

Contrarian angles: The consensus frames this as an education funding loss — but universities could respond by cutting program tuition, bundling employer‑sponsored tracks, or increasing assistantships, muting revenue shocks. Market reaction is likely underdone for SLM‑type issuers (private loan share could double from 8% to 16% in stress scenarios within 24 months) and overdone for top‑tier universities with brand pricing power. Historical parallel: prior DOE loan rule changes produced rapid re‑pricing in student ABS and a flight to private origination; an analogous outcome is plausible here, with unintended consequences in securitization markets and staffing firms.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in SLM (Sallie Mae) within 30 days using a 6–12 month horizon; hedge with a 14% stop if shares drop >20% from entry. Rationale: incremental private loan demand could lift origination and securitization volumes; securitization spreads tightening would re‑rate earnings.
• Buy a 6–12 month call spread on TWOU (2U) sized 1–2% of portfolio to capture migration to lower‑cost online master’s; target 30–60% upside if enrollment grows 15–25% year‑over‑year, cap premium via spread to limit downside.
• Enter a pair trade: long RHI (Robert Half) 1.5% / short CHGG (Chegg) 1.5% over 12–24 months. Rationale: future accounting faculty/CPA shortages and mid‑career hiring increases demand for staffing; Chegg downside if grad enrollments and test‑prep demand re‑mix. Rebalance if DOE final rule is reversed within 90 days.
• Monitor DOE rulemaking and AICPA/NASBA lobbying milestones closely over next 30–90 days; if the department signals reversal or Congressional pushback, unwind private‑loan longs and rotate into select education names (recovery trade) within 7 trading days of announcement.