Earnings call transcript: Fox Corp Q4 2025 beats forecasts, stock reacts

Fox Corporation reported robust Q4 2025 results, with EPS of $1.27 significantly beating forecasts by 29.5% and revenue of $3.29 billion exceeding expectations by 5.45%, contributing to full-year revenue growth of 17% and adjusted EBITDA up 26%. Despite this strong financial performance, the stock declined 3.16% post-earnings. Management highlighted continued growth from Tubi and announced the upcoming launch of FOX One, a direct-to-consumer streaming platform, further underscoring confidence with a $5 billion increase in share repurchase authorization, reflecting a strategic focus on live content and digital expansion.

Analysis

Fox Corporation (FOXA) reported exceptionally strong fiscal Q4 and full-year 2025 results, significantly outperforming analyst expectations. The company posted a Q4 EPS of $1.27, a 29.5% beat on forecasts, and revenue of $3.29 billion, exceeding estimates by 5.45%. This performance concluded a record year, with annual revenue growing 17% to $16 billion and adjusted EBITDA rising 26% to $3.6 billion, fueled by record political advertising and a highly successful Super Bowl broadcast. Despite these robust figures, the stock experienced a 3.16% decline post-announcement, a market reaction likely focused on forward-looking guidance. Management is navigating a strategic transition, leveraging the strength of its core live sports and news assets while increasing investment in digital initiatives. The streaming service Tubi continues its impressive trajectory with 32% revenue growth in the quarter, but the launch of the new FOX One D2C platform is projected to elevate the company's total digital investment back towards the $350 million level in fiscal 2026. This planned increase in spending, combined with difficult year-over-year comparisons from lapping the political cycle and Super Bowl, presents a near-term headwind. However, management signaled profound confidence in its financial health and future cash flow by announcing a substantial $5 billion increase to its share repurchase authorization, providing a strong counterbalance to investor concerns about near-term investment costs.

Key Decisions for Investors

• The combination of a significant earnings beat and a massive $5 billion increase to the share repurchase authorization signals strong management confidence, suggesting the post-earnings stock dip could represent a value opportunity for investors focused on capital returns and the durable strength of live content.
• Investors should closely monitor the initial costs and subscriber uptake for the new FOX One streaming platform, as the guided increase in digital investment to approximately $350 million in FY2026 will be a key factor weighing on near-term EBITDA.
• Key metrics to track in coming quarters will be the advertising revenue performance against tough FY2025 comparables and Tubi's ability to deliver on its guided 'substantial improvement in profitability', which is critical to validating the company's digital growth strategy.