Invitation to SCA’s Q4 2025 press conference January 30, 2026, 10:00 CET

SCA will publish its interim report for Q4 2025 on January 30, 2026 at approximately 08:00 CET, followed by a webcast press conference at 10:00 CET where President and CEO Ulf Larsson and CFO Andreas Ewertz will present the results and answer questions. The event can be followed via webcast or by telephone (phone numbers and conference ID to be provided in the quarterly report). Investor and media contacts are Anders Edholm (SVP Sustainability & Communications) and Tommy Olofsson (Investor Relations Director).

Analysis

Market structure: The announcement is a low-impact, scheduled event for SCA (STO:SCA-B) with limited information content itself, but it creates a predictable liquidity and volatility window on Jan 30, 2026 that benefits event-volatility players and short-term option sellers. Winners if report beats guidance: SCA, suppliers of pulp/tissue; losers if margins disappoint: regional peers (e.g., HOLM-B) via downward pricing pressure. Competitive dynamics: any upward revision to tissue/pulp pricing guidance could shift 1-3 percentage points of market share value toward SCA if corroborated by higher utilization; conversely weak guidance accelerates consolidation talk and price competition.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include an operational outage (mill fire/strike) or EU ETS/energy-cost shock that could move EBITDA ±15–30% and drive >15% stock swings; FX (SEK/EUR/USD) moves of 5%+ materially change reported results. Immediate (days): expect IV to rise 20–40% into the call; short-term (weeks): guidance-driven re-rating possible +/-10%; long-term (quarters): secular pulp/tissue demand trends and carbon policy drive structural margins. Hidden dependencies: pulp inventory cycles, biomass sales and power contracts and recycled-fiber supply can change margins faster than sales volumes.

Trade implications: Direct: establish a tactical 1–2% notional long in SCA-B 3–5 trading days ahead of the call, size to limit max drawdown to 6%, and trim 50% on a >5% post-release move. Options: if SCA IV rank <40 buy 30–45d ATM straddle (cost cap 3% of position); if IV rank >60 sell 7–14d iron condors around strikes ±3–6% to collect premium. Pair trade: long SCA-B 1% vs short HOLM-B 1% for 3–6 months to play relative exposure to tissue vs paper, target 4–8% absolute return.

Contrarian angles: Consensus will treat this as low-impact; that underprices the optionality of guidance on pulp/tissue pricing and energy-contract disclosures—a surprise could move SCA >8% intraday. Historical parallels: prior SCA releases moved 3–8% on margin commentary; markets often overreact intraday then mean-revert 30–60% of move within 2–4 weeks. Unintended consequence: strong sustainability/cost-control messaging could accelerate strategic M&A bids for smaller peers, creating asymmetric upside beyond near-term multiples.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a tactical 1–2% long position in SCA (STO:SCA-B) sized so a 6% adverse move equals your max loss; enter 3–5 trading days before the Jan 30, 2026 report and trim 50% if stock rises >5% on release.
• If implied vol (IV) rank for SCA <40, buy a 30–45 day ATM straddle with a cost cap of 3% of portfolio notional; if IV rank >60, sell a 7–14 day iron condor with wings at +/-3–6% to harvest event premium.
• Implement a 1% long SCA-B / 1% short HOLM-B pair trade for 3–6 months to play relative strength in tissue/pulp exposure; set stop-loss if pair diverges by 6% and take profits at 4–8% relative gain.
• Hedge currency exposure: if >20% of your portfolio is Swedish-export names, hedge 30% of expected 2026 SEK revenue exposure with a 3–6 month EUR/SEK put spread (strike width = 4% of spot) to limit SEK appreciation risk impacting reported EUR/SEK earnings.