Hims and Hers stock sees BTIG maintain Neutral after Q1 miss

Hims & Hers reported Q1 revenue of $608 million, up 3.8% year over year but below the $617 million consensus, while adjusted EBITDA fell 51% to $44.3 million versus $47 million expected. The company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $2.8 billion-$3.0 billion but lowered 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $275 million-$350 million, with Q2 revenue guidance of $680 million-$700 million ahead of estimates but EBITDA outlook of $35 million-$55 million below forecasts. BTIG kept a Neutral rating, and the stock remains expensive at 57.8x P/E and 38.5x EV/EBITDA.

Analysis

HIMS is transitioning from a narrative stock to a unit-economics stock, and that is usually where multiples compress before they re-rate. The key tell is not the near-term revenue guide, but the EBITDA guide reset: management is effectively signaling that incremental growth is being bought with materially lower margin capture, which should force investors to haircut the quality of the 2026 revenue ramp. When a consumer-health platform can still grow but cannot scale profitably, the market tends to stop paying software-like valuations and starts valuing it like a branded DTC business with execution risk.

The second-order implication is more favorable for NVO than for HIMS. If the Novo partnership is truly driving subscriber adds, then the competitive battlefield shifts from customer acquisition to retention and prescription persistence, where the large pharma partner has leverage and HIMS has less control over economics. That means HIMS may get the top-line halo while NVO captures more of the durable value through medication supply, brand association, and downstream refill volume.

Near term, the stock can remain supported because guidance is still above the street on revenue and the market often rewards visible growth even when margins wobble. But over the next 1-3 quarters, the risk is that investors realize the updated EBITDA range implies little room for error if acquisition costs, shipping, or mix shift further against the company. The contrarian view is that the premium multiple is not being challenged by the growth rate itself, but by the credibility of future margin expansion; if that credibility breaks again, valuation can de-rate sharply without a further revenue miss.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short HIMS on strength into the next print or guidance update; the setup favors a 2-3 quarter de-rating if EBITDA continues to lag revenue, with upside capped by an already rich multiple.
• Pair long NVO / short HIMS over the next 1-2 months to express the view that the Novo partnership monetizes better for the drug supplier than for the telehealth distributor.
• If holding HIMS, use call spreads rather than outright long stock for the next 30-60 days; implied upside from revenue beats is still there, but margin compression makes the left tail unattractive.
• For event risk, consider buying HIMS puts around any channel-check-driven excitement on the weight-loss subscriber story; the trade works best if the market starts focusing on EBITDA conversion rather than subscriber adds.