China’s COMAC falls behind on C919 aircraft delivery targets, filings show

Chinese planemaker COMAC is significantly behind its C919 narrow-body jet delivery targets, having handed over only five aircraft by September against an airline expectation of 32 and its own revised goal of 25 for the year, down from an earlier target of 75. This production shortfall, partly attributed to a temporary U.S. halt on CFM engine exports and the C919's reliance on foreign components, underscores the substantial challenges COMAC faces in scaling production and competing with established Western manufacturers, indicating a much slower ramp-up for the program than initially projected.

Analysis

Chinese state-owned planemaker COMAC is confronting significant production shortfalls for its C919 narrow-body jet, a key competitor to the Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo families. As of September, only five aircraft have been delivered against an airline expectation of 32 for the year, and COMAC has reportedly slashed its internal production target from 75 to just 25 aircraft for 2023. This underperformance highlights critical vulnerabilities in China's aerospace supply chain, particularly its reliance on foreign components, as evidenced by a temporary U.S. halt on CFM engine exports between June and July. The C919 program's challenges are further compounded by its lack of certification from major Western aviation regulators, limiting its order book primarily to domestic Chinese airlines and a few regional allies. Independent aviation consultancy IBA corroborates this pessimistic outlook, forecasting a much slower ramp-up with only 18 deliveries in 2025 and 25 in 2026, reinforcing the view that COMAC's path to becoming a global competitor is substantially longer and more fraught with obstacles than initially projected.

Key Decisions for Investors

• COMAC's production struggles and supply chain vulnerabilities significantly de-risk the medium-term competitive outlook for incumbent planemakers Boeing (BA) and Airbus, reinforcing the stability of their duopoly in the lucrative narrow-body market.
• Investors in the aerospace sector should closely monitor geopolitical trade policies and China's progress in domesticating critical aircraft components, as these factors will dictate the long-term viability and timeline of the C919 program's threat.
• The substantial domestic order book from China's top three airlines signals strong state support for COMAC, but the operational delays suggest any material impact on Boeing and Airbus's market share is a distant, rather than imminent, risk.