A Road Map to Over 28000 for the NASDAQ 100

Elliott Wave analysis suggests the NASDAQ100 (NDX) is in a prolonged bull market, specifically the 3rd wave of an ending diagonal, with a long-term target exceeding 28000 within the next few years. The recent February-April decline, termed the 'Trump Tariff Tantrum,' is interpreted as a B-wave, not a 4th wave, supporting this bullish trajectory. Near-term, the NDX is expected to complete its current sub-wave, targeting 24092-24694, with specific warning levels identified to manage risk against potential deviations from this forecast.

Analysis

Based on a technical Elliott Wave analysis, the NASDAQ 100 index is positioned within a prolonged bull market that commenced in March 2020. The current structure is identified as a third wave within a larger ending diagonal pattern, projecting a long-term target exceeding 28,000 in the coming years. A key element of this thesis is the interpretation of the February-April 2024 retracement as a corrective B-wave, rather than a more bearish 4th wave, because it did not overlap with the November 2021 (Wave-1) high. Near-term, the analysis anticipates a move towards a target zone of 24,092-24,694, which would complete a sub-wave of the larger impulse. However, the forecast is accompanied by a clear risk management framework, outlining four specific price levels (23,484, 22,973, 22,041, and 20,613) that, if breached, would sequentially increase the probability that the bullish scenario is incorrect and a significant top has been formed.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors aligned with a bullish outlook on the NASDAQ 100 could consider this analysis as supportive of maintaining long exposure, given the long-term price target of 28,000+.
• It is critical to monitor the specified downside warning levels, starting at 23,484, as a breach would invalidate the current wave count and signal a potential market top, warranting a defensive posture or position reduction.
• Traders should watch for the index to approach the near-term target zone of 24,092-24,694, as this area is identified as a potential completion point for the current impulse wave and could precede a significant corrective period.
• Recognize that this forecast relies exclusively on the Elliott Wave methodology, which is a subjective interpretation of market sentiment, and its conclusions should be used in conjunction with other fundamental and quantitative signals.