Lowe's (LOW) Q1 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates

Lowe's reported Q1 2025 revenue of $20.93 billion, a 2% decrease year-over-year, but slightly above the consensus estimate of $20.92 billion; EPS was $2.92, down from $3.06 year-over-year, but also exceeding estimates. Comparable store sales decreased by 1.7%, outperforming the estimated decline of 2.1%, and sales per store were $11.96 million, above the $11.92 million estimate, while the stock's recent performance lags the S&P 500, it currently holds a Zacks Rank #3, suggesting market-average returns in the near term.

Analysis

Lowe's reported Q1 2025 financial results indicating a degree of operational resilience despite top-line and bottom-line contractions compared to the prior year. Revenue for the quarter ended April 2025 was $20.93 billion, a 2% decrease year-over-year, but fractionally exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $20.92 billion by 0.03%. Earnings per share (EPS) stood at $2.92, down from $3.06 in the year-ago quarter, yet surpassed the consensus EPS estimate of $2.88 by 1.39%. Importantly, key operational metrics outperformed analyst expectations: comparable store sales declined 1.7% year-over-year, which was less severe than the anticipated 2.1% decrease. Furthermore, sales per store reached $11.96 million, slightly above the $11.92 million estimate, while the total store count remained steady at 1,750, aligning with projections. Despite these positive surprises relative to estimates, Lowe's stock performance has lagged the broader market, with a +5.6% return over the past month compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +12.7% gain. The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting an expectation of near-term performance in line with the market.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should acknowledge Lowe's ability to outperform analyst estimates on revenue, EPS, and comparable store sales, which suggests effective management in a challenging retail environment, even as year-over-year figures declined.
• Given the stock's recent underperformance against the S&P 500 and its current Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), a neutral stance may be appropriate, watching for improvements in macroeconomic conditions or company-specific catalysts before adjusting positions.
• Carefully monitor future comparable store sales figures and management's outlook on consumer demand within the home improvement sector, as these will be crucial indicators of Lowe's trajectory and its ability to return to growth.