2 EV Stocks That Could Be Heading for $0, and 1 With Multibagger Potential Left

U.S. EV demand softened in 2025 (U.S. sales down 1% through Nov. 30 vs. global sales up 21%), pressured by tariffs and the loss of the $7,500 federal tax credit. Lucid reported Q3 production +116% and deliveries +47% with revenue +68% but posted a Q3 net loss of $978.4M and $1.8B for the first nine months while burning $2B of an initial $5B cash pile (leaving ~$3B). Rivian’s Q3 revenue rose 78% to $1.55B, gross losses narrowed to $130M, but it still posted a Q3 net loss of $1.16B and held $5.29B in cash with improved nine‑month cash flow (-$2.82B). Tesla remains the healthiest operator: nine‑month 2025 revenue $69.9B and net income $2.99B (down from 2024), Q3 revenue rose 11% y/y to $28B, and cash grew to $18.2B as of Sept. 30, 2025, making it the preferred play among U.S. EV names.

Analysis

Market structure: The US EV pullback (US -1% vs. global +21% YTD) reallocates demand toward profitable incumbents and lower-cost imports. Winners: TSLA (scale, cash $18B+, positive net income) and suppliers with diversified OEM exposure; losers: loss-making pure plays RIVN and LCID facing balance‑sheet and margin pressure. Expect short-term dealer/inventory build, price promotion, and weaker OEM pricing power in the US over the next 3–9 months.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a liquidity shock at LCID/RIVN (bankruptcy/restructuring within 6–12 months if cash burn persists), abrupt tariff/incentive reversals, or battery-supply disruptions (CATL/LG concentration). Immediate (days) volatility will track headlines and earnings; medium term (1–6 months) is cash‑burn and seasonality; long term (2–5 years) is market‑share consolidation toward low‑cost, profitable producers and software/energy services.

Trade implications: Favor asymmetric exposure: buy scale/profit (TSLA) via 12–24 month LEAPs; short equity or buy put spreads on LCID (3–9 month horizon) sized to cash runway; pair trades (long TSLA vs short RIVN) to isolate profitability vs growth risk. Volatility trades: buy near-term straddles around RIVN/LCID earnings or sell covered calls on established TSLA exposure to monetize implied vol.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates global EV growth tailwind and battery-materials tightness; thus select upstream miners and software/charging infra names may outperform even as US retail softens. The market may be over-penalizing survivable losers (LCID) but underpricing a policy swing risk; monitor monthly EV retail days‑supply and cash runway metrics as early reversal signals.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Initiate a 2–3% portfolio long in TSLA via staggered purchases over 4–8 weeks and hedge by buying 12–24 month LEAP calls (target delta ~0.45) to capture recovery if Q4–Q1 vehicle comps improve; trim or sell covered calls 3–6 months OTM after a 10% intra‑month rally.
• Establish a 0.5–1% short position in LCID using a 3–9 month put spread (buy 1x ATM put, sell 1x 20–30% OTM put) to limit premium; rationale: cash runway ~5 quarters at current burn and risk of restructuring within 6–12 months—close if LCID reports cash >$4.5B or sequential margin improvement >200bp.
• Run a relative-value pair: long TSLA (1.5% portfolio) vs short RIVN (1% portfolio) for 6–18 months to capture profitability dispersion; rebalance if RIVN cash >$7B or if RIVN gross losses narrow by >50% sequentially.
• Deploy event-driven vol trades: buy 30–60 day straddles on RIVN and LCID ahead of quarterly earnings (allocate 0.25% each) to capture headline-driven spikes; exit within 5 trading days post‑earnings or if IV contraction reduces premium by 40%.
• Reduce net exposure to speculative EV-only ETFs and loss-making OEMs by 30% over next 60 days and reallocate that capital (up to 2% portfolio) to battery-materials producers and charging/software infrastructure stocks with 12–24 month secular tailwinds.