Mondelez stock price target lowered to $72 at TD Cowen on weaker demand

TD Cowen reduced its price target for Mondelez (MDLZ) to $72 and lowered its 2025 organic growth forecast to 4.5%, citing European elasticity issues, U.S. destocking, and softer emerging market demand, though it maintained a Buy rating due to anticipated FX benefits. This cautious outlook is mirrored by some analysts, while others, including JPMorgan initiating with Overweight, highlight MDLZ's global snacking strength and potential for outperformance despite near-term headwinds and cocoa volatility.

Analysis

Mondelez International (MDLZ) is facing a mixed analyst outlook characterized by near-term operational headwinds versus a more constructive long-term view. TD Cowen has lowered its price target to $72 and reduced its 2025 organic growth forecast to 4.5%, below company guidance, citing consumer price elasticity issues in European chocolate, U.S. retailer destocking, and softening demand in key emerging markets including China, India, and Latin America. This cautious stance is echoed by Berenberg, which downgraded the stock to Hold with a $70 target, and Evercore ISI, which cut its Q3 organic sales forecast to 3.5%. Despite these pressures, analysts like TD Cowen are holding EPS estimates steady at $3.03, anticipating that favorable foreign exchange rates will offset the growth challenges. In contrast, a bullish long-term case is being made by JPMorgan, which initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $75 price target, emphasizing the company's potential for outperformance due to its global snacking focus. Similarly, Bernstein maintains an Outperform rating with an $88 target, viewing downside as limited despite significant cocoa market volatility, a factor also highlighted as critical by Piper Sandler.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should weigh the clear near-term headwinds, including European price elasticity and emerging market softness, against the long-term structural growth story presented by bulls like JPMorgan.
• Monitor upcoming quarterly reports for organic sales growth relative to the lowered 3.5% forecast and for management commentary on consumer demand trends, as these will be key validation points for either the bearish or bullish thesis.
• Given the explicit mention of cocoa costs as a crucial factor by multiple analysts, it is prudent to assess the potential impact of commodity price volatility on Mondelez's future margin profile, which could offset anticipated foreign exchange benefits.