Jefferies warns Adyen faces too-high bar on 2026 growth outlook

Jefferies has issued a cautious outlook on Adyen's long-term growth, warning that sell-side expectations for 2026 are overly ambitious despite reiterating a 'buy' rating and €1,835 price target. While aligning with 2025 consensus growth of 21%, the firm projects 23% growth for 2026, noting a potential overestimation of visibility given uncertainties like European macro conditions and tariff impacts, suggesting the lower end of Adyen's stated low-to-high 20% mid-term growth ambition is more realistic.

Analysis

Jefferies has issued a nuanced research note on Adyen, reiterating a 'buy' rating with a €1,835 price target, which implies a potential 32% upside, while simultaneously cautioning that sell-side growth expectations for 2026 are overly ambitious. The firm's analysts express a more positive long-term view following a recent conference but note a significant gap between market expectations and operational realities. Jefferies aligns with consensus for 2025, forecasting 21% net revenue growth, but flags low visibility for 2026. While their 23% growth forecast for 2026 is similar to Visible Alpha consensus, they argue the market may be overestimating Adyen's foresight into that period. The report suggests the lower end of Adyen's stated mid-term ambition of 'low to high 20%' growth is a more realistic starting point, citing uncertainties around the full tariff impact, the European macroeconomic backdrop, and sales pipeline conversion as key risk factors.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors with a long-term horizon might consider the 'buy' rating and 32% implied upside as a positive signal, but should be prepared for potential downward revisions to 2026 consensus estimates which could create near-term volatility.
• It is prudent to closely monitor disclosures on sales pipeline conversion and tariff impacts in upcoming earnings reports, as these are the specific operational uncertainties flagged by Jefferies.
• When modeling future performance, consider using a growth rate in the 'low 20s' for 2026, aligning with Jefferies' more cautious stance, rather than relying on potentially optimistic sell-side consensus.