Wall Street analysts update Tesla stock price ahead of Robotaxi launch

Tesla's stock (TSLA) has rebounded despite a delayed robotaxi launch in Austin and mixed Wall Street sentiment. Guggenheim and Wells Fargo maintain bearish ratings with price targets of $175 and $120 respectively, citing weak Q2 delivery trends and international sales declines; Baird also downgraded TSLA to 'Neutral'. Conversely, Morgan Stanley reiterated a 'Buy' rating with a $410 price target, emphasizing Tesla's long-term strengths in AI, robotics, and energy, dismissing near-term concerns.

Analysis

Tesla's stock (TSLA) has demonstrated resilience, trading at $325.31 with a near 2% daily gain and a 14% increase over the past week, despite the delayed public launch of its robotaxi service in Austin, now anticipated around June 22 or June 28 due to safety considerations. This resilience contrasts sharply with a divided Wall Street outlook. On the bearish side, Guggenheim's Ronald Jewsikow maintains a 'Sell' rating, slashing his price target to $175, citing deteriorating fundamentals, weak Q2 delivery trends forecasted at 360,000 units (significantly below the 415,000 consensus), and underwhelming demand for the refreshed Model Y. Similarly, Wells Fargo's Colin Langan reiterates an 'Underweight' rating with a $120 price target, highlighting sharp international sales declines—36% in Germany, 45% in the U.K., and 30% in China—contributing to Q2 delivery estimates tracking 21% below the prior year, though he acknowledges the robotaxi event could be a crucial inflection point. Baird’s Ben Kallo also downgraded Tesla to ‘Neutral’, concerned about the robotaxi rollout's limited scale and political uncertainties involving Elon Musk and former President Trump, suggesting current hype may be priced in, while still viewing Tesla as a core long-term holding. Conversely, Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas offers an optimistic view, reiterating a 'Buy' rating and a $410 price target, emphasizing Tesla's long-term potential in AI, robotics, energy, and infrastructure, and dismissing near-term issues like EV tax credit cuts and political distractions as secondary to the company's innovation pipeline and global reach.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor Tesla's upcoming Q2 delivery figures and the execution of the robotaxi launch, as these are key catalysts highlighted by both bullish and bearish analysts.
• Given the wide dispersion in analyst price targets, ranging from $120 to $410, investors should carefully assess their risk tolerance and investment horizon, weighing near-term operational challenges such as declining international sales and delivery shortfalls against the company's ambitious long-term vision in AI and autonomy.
• It is prudent to monitor political risks associated with Elon Musk and potential policy changes, as well as the competitive landscape, as these factors could significantly impact market sentiment and Tesla's operational environment.