Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson talks major projects

This is less a one-off project approval than a signaling event that lowers the discount rate on Canadian midstream and cross-border gas optionality. The first-order winner is ENB, but the second-order beneficiary is the broader Canadian energy complex: if Ottawa is willing to fast-track export-oriented infrastructure, capital allocation should rotate toward names with the cleanest permitting pathways and existing right-of-way footprints. That tends to favor incumbents with scale over smaller developers, because permitting velocity and balance-sheet capacity become the scarce resources.

The competitive implication is that this is modestly negative for U.S.-focused gas growth alternatives if Canadian molecules gain a more credible path to tidewater/export markets. Over a 6-18 month horizon, that can pressure basis differentials and weaken the scarcity premium embedded in some North American gas infrastructure assets, especially if investors start underwriting a policy regime rather than a single project. The most important second-order effect is on customer behavior: if shippers believe additional export capacity is becoming politically bankable, upstream producers may hedge less aggressively and invest more, which can deepen the pipeline’s long-duration cash-flow profile before first gas.

The main risk is execution, not politics. These projects often trade well on approval headlines but can retrace if provincial opposition, Indigenous consultations, court challenges, or cost inflation push timelines out by 12-24 months. That makes the near-term move in ENB likely more sentiment-driven than fundamental, while the real earnings impact is likely to arrive later and in a stair-step fashion, not linearly.

Consensus may be underestimating how much this improves ENB’s strategic leverage in future regulatory negotiations. If Ottawa is trying to build a repeatable major-project pipeline, ENB becomes a template asset, which is more valuable than the standalone NPV of one pipeline. The contrarian read is that the market may focus too narrowly on near-term capex and too little on the optionality premium from being the government’s preferred counterpart.