Soybeans Showing Slight Gains on Thursday

Soybeans ticked modestly higher midday with the national cash average at $10.23 and futures up a few cents while soymeal gained about $1.50 and soybean oil traded lower; four deliveries were issued against December soybean oil. USDA weekly export bookings were a soft 695,598 MT—below trade estimates and 61% under last year—although private flash sales included 264,000 MT to China; conversely, crush activity and meal demand remain robust (September crush +9.9% YoY, October crush a monthly record at 237 million bushels) and meal shipments hit a seventh consecutive monthly record (1.32 MMT), supporting the complex. Offset risks include rising soybean oil stocks (1.781 billion lbs, +11.9% YoY) and weak oil shipments, a small CONAB cut to Brazil’s crop to 177.12 MMT, and state sales in China (Sinograin sold 397,000 MT), all of which suggest mixed near-term fundamentals with strong domestic crush/meal demand but pressure on oil and uneven export momentum.

Analysis

Soybean cash and futures were modestly higher midday with the national cash average at $10.23 and nearby futures (Jan) at $10.93-1/2, while soymeal futures gained about $1.50 and soybean oil futures were down 30–38 points; four deliveries were issued against December soybean oil. Weekly USDA export bookings totaled 695,598 MT, below trade estimates of 0.6–1.4 MMT and 61% lower than the same week last year, though private flash sales included 264,000 MT to China and 226,000 MT to unknown destinations.

Crush and meal demand remain the strongest fundamental support in the complex: September crush was 204.93 million bushels (+9.89% YoY) and October crush hit a monthly record at 237 million bushels (+9.86% YoY), while meal shipments were a seventh consecutive monthly record at 1.32 MMT. Conversely, soybean oil is under pressure — shipments were the lowest since Oct 2024 at 17,617 MT and U.S. bean oil stocks rose to 1.781 billion lbs (+11.89% YoY), with net reported oil sales showing reductions.

Supply-side signals are mixed: CONAB trimmed Brazil production to 177.12 MMT (-0.48 MMT from November) and Sinograin auctioned 397,000 MT of imported beans, which provides some export liquidity but does not offset weak weekly bookings; the picture is therefore stronger for meal/crush margins but bearish for oil prices in the near term.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Favor exposure to soymeal/crush economics over soybean oil — consider long soymeal or long crush spreads given record crush and consecutive monthly meal shipment records
• Trim or hedge soybean oil exposure using options or short positions given rising U.S. oil stocks, weak shipments, and net reductions in reported oil sales
• Monitor weekly export bookings and additional Chinese purchases (private flash sales and Sinograin activity) as key catalysts that could tighten or relieve export-driven price pressure
• Watch CONAB revisions and subsequent South American crop updates closely; further downward revisions could provide upside risk to soybean fundamentals and warrant rebalancing toward beans