Costco (COST) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?

Costco (COST) is projected to report earnings of $5.79 per share for the quarter ended August 2025, representing a 12.4% year-over-year increase, with revenues expected to reach $86.14 billion, an 8.1% rise. Despite a slight 0.82% upward revision in consensus EPS estimates over the past 30 days, Costco's Zacks Earnings ESP of -0.58% and a Zacks Rank #3 indicate that predicting an earnings beat is difficult, even with a history of exceeding EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters.

Analysis

Costco is positioned for significant growth in its upcoming August 2025 quarterly report, with consensus estimates projecting a 12.4% year-over-year increase in EPS to $5.79 and an 8.1% rise in revenue to $86.14 billion. This positive outlook is further supported by a 0.82% upward revision in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days and a historical track record of beating earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters. However, conflicting signals introduce caution regarding the likelihood of a near-term earnings beat. The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) is negative at -0.58%, indicating that the most recent analyst revisions are more bearish than the broader consensus. Combined with a neutral Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this configuration makes it statistically difficult to predict an earnings surprise with confidence, creating a mixed and uncertain picture for the stock's immediate reaction to the September 25th report.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the conflicting signals between strong fundamental growth forecasts and a negative Earnings ESP, investors should exercise caution and consider a neutral stance, avoiding significant new positions ahead of the earnings release.
• Pay close attention to management's qualitative guidance on the earnings call, as commentary on consumer behavior, margins, and future business conditions will likely be more influential on the stock's sustained trajectory than a marginal EPS beat or miss.
• For existing long-term holders, the negative short-term indicators may not warrant a full exit, but could justify hedging strategies or trimming positions to mitigate potential downside volatility around the earnings event.