Cramer praises Nvidia CEO's win with Trump, says Apple deal a great first step

U.S. stocks exhibited mixed performance, with the Nasdaq buoyed by Nvidia's surge while the Dow and S&P 500 saw slight declines, as benign CPI data aligned with expectations, reinforcing the probability of a September Fed rate cut. Nvidia shares climbed approximately 4.5% on news of anticipated U.S. government licenses to resume H20 GPU exports to China, potentially recovering an $8 billion revenue impact. Concurrently, Apple announced a $500 million deal with MP Materials for rare earth magnets and a recycling facility, significantly boosting MP Materials shares by nearly 25% as part of Apple's broader U.S. investment commitment.

Analysis

The U.S. equity market is exhibiting divergent performance, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq advancing on the strength of key component stocks while the Dow and S&P 500 experience minor declines. This occurs against a backdrop of benign inflation data, as the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% monthly and 2.7% annually, aligning with analyst expectations and resulting in stable Treasury yields. Despite this, the Federal Reserve's policy path remains complex due to conflicting deflationary and inflationary pressures within the economy, leading markets to price in a low 2.6% probability of a July rate cut but a much higher 60% probability for September. In company-specific news, Nvidia shares gained approximately 4.5% following guidance that it expects to soon resume exports of its H20 GPUs to China, a move that could recover a previously estimated $8 billion quarterly revenue impact. Concurrently, Apple announced a $500 million deal with MP Materials for rare earth magnets and a new recycling facility, part of a broader $500 billion domestic investment strategy. The announcement had a significant market impact, lifting Apple shares by over 1% and causing MP Materials' stock to surge by nearly 25%, signaling strong investor approval for supply chain onshoring and strategic domestic investments.

Key Decisions for Investors

• For Nvidia (NVDA), the expected resumption of H20 GPU exports to China represents a significant de-risking event; investors should assess if the potential recovery of an $8 billion revenue impact is fully priced into the stock's recent 4.5% rally.
• The Apple partnership has dramatically re-rated MP Materials (MP), and following the initial 25% stock surge, long-term investors should now focus on the execution of the agreement and the potential for deeper supply chain integration as key performance indicators.
• Given that the market is pricing in a 60% probability of a September Fed rate cut despite mixed inflation signals, it is prudent to remain cautious of potential volatility, as the central bank's complex task could lead to policy actions that diverge from current consensus.