KeyBanc raises Autodesk stock price target to $350

KeyBanc raised its Autodesk (ADSK) price target to $350 from $323, maintaining an Overweight rating, after the company reported Q1 results showing accelerated normalized constant currency revenue growth of 11%, including 10% organic growth. The price target reflects a 32x multiple of fiscal year 2027 EV/FCF, with KeyBanc citing Autodesk's strong market position and conservative FY26 growth guidance as potential upside catalysts; this aligns with broader analyst optimism following Autodesk's earnings and revenue beat, as well as increased FY26 free cash flow projections.

Analysis

KeyBanc Capital Markets has revised its price target for Autodesk (ADSK) upward to $350 from $323, reiterating an Overweight rating, subsequent to Autodesk's first-quarter earnings report which showcased an acceleration in normalized constant currency (c.c.) revenue growth to 11%, with 10% organic growth, an improvement from the prior quarter's approximately 9%. This positive assessment is supported by Autodesk's robust 92% gross profit margin and its significant market presence. Analyst Jason Celino from KeyBanc noted this growth as encouraging, particularly for the second half of the year, despite Autodesk's revised, more conservative fiscal year 2026 normalized c.c. billings growth guidance of 8-9%, which Celino views as potentially offering upside. The new $350 price target is predicated on a 32x multiple of Autodesk’s anticipated fiscal year 2027 enterprise value to free cash flow. This sentiment is echoed by broader analyst optimism, with 21 analysts reportedly upgrading earnings expectations. Autodesk's Q1 fiscal year 2025 results surpassed expectations, with earnings per share at $2.29 (versus $2.15 projected) and revenue of $1.63 billion (versus $1.61 billion anticipated), marking a 15% year-over-year revenue increase. Other firms also reflect confidence: RBC Capital Markets maintained an Outperform rating with a $345 price target, and BMO Capital Markets increased its target to $333 from $324. Autodesk itself has slightly raised its fiscal year 2026 guidance, including higher free cash flow projections, and continues to emphasize investments in AI and cloud technologies.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the strong first-quarter performance, accelerated revenue growth, and multiple analyst price target increases, investors may find Autodesk's current trajectory supportive of a bullish stance.
• Investors should monitor Autodesk's ability to exceed its conservative fiscal year 2026 billings growth guidance, as this could serve as a catalyst for further stock appreciation.
• The company's strategic investments in AI and cloud, coupled with robust gross margins and increasing free cash flow projections, suggest a favorable long-term outlook, warranting consideration for those with a longer investment horizon.