The Bull Case for Bitcoin That Has Nothing to Do With Price Predictions

Key datapoints: OCC found in 2025 that nine major U.S. banks restricted services to lawful businesses (debanking); Russia permitted crypto for international trade settlements in 2024; Iran has used Bitcoin mining since 2019 to finance imports. The article argues Bitcoin's uncensorable, non-sovereign settlement layer creates persistent structural demand from sanctioned states and debanked or at-risk actors, a thesis that does not rely on price forecasts. Implication for portfolios: this is a long-term, structural demand argument rather than a short-term price catalyst, so expect gradual adoption-driven support rather than an immediate market-moving event.

Analysis

Neutral, permissionless settlement demand creates an investment chain that stops well short of spot crypto prices: it expands the market for regulated on‑ramps, custody, surveillance and liquidity provisioning. Exchanges and market‑infrastructure providers will earn recurring fee pools (custody, prime services, settlement) that compound over years and are less volatile than retail trading spreads; a 3–5% reallocation of cross‑border flows into alternative rails would be >$bn of revenue opportunity for a handful of incumbents.

Second‑order tech winners are not miners but analytics and security vendors: machine‑learning for transaction monitoring, on‑chain analytics and identity stitching increases demand for GPU compute and data center services, favouring suppliers of high‑margin accelerators and cloud stacks rather than commodity CPU vendors. Conversely, legacy correspondent banking and any counterparty that monetizes identity control see margin pressure as clients diversify settlement rails and demand self‑custody options.

Key risks and reversal catalysts cluster around policy and connectivity: rapid rollout of interoperable CBDCs with strong privacy/AML layers, export controls on mining/custody hardware, or targeted network blackouts can materially blunt structural adoption within 6–24 months. Market timing matters — regulatory clarity or major sanctions easing would compress the narrative and flow benefits into a 3–9 month window; absent that, the secular payoff plays out over multiple years and is sensitive to incremental institutional product launches and fee capture rates.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long NDAQ (buy shares or 9–12 month call spread): Capture recurring fee upside from institutional on‑ramps and custody. Target +25–40% total return over 12–24 months if crypto volumes/prime services grow; downside: equity risk and platform competition — set protective stop at -15% or size to 3–4% NAV.
• Pair trade — Long NVDA (buy Jan‑2028 LEAPS calls) / Short INTC (buy 12–18 month puts or modest outright short): NVDA benefits from incremental GPU demand for ML‑driven AML/analytics; INTC faces structural share pressure in accelerator markets. Aim for 2–3x asymmetry over 12–36 months; cap position size to 2% NAV each leg and hedge with collars if NVDA premium spikes.
• Tactical tail hedge — Buy 3–6 month NFLX put spread (out‑of‑the‑money): Use as low‑cost hedge against accelerated geopolitical fragmentation reducing cross‑licensing and ad revenue in contested markets. Expect moderate payoff in scenario risk; premium loss if no shock — size small (0.5–1% NAV).
• Event trigger plan: If a major jurisdiction announces broad CBDC interoperability or an easing of sanctions that would divert flows back to banks within 3 months, take profits: trim NDAQ/NVDA exposure by 30–50% and rotate into select bank incumbents or short crypto infrastructure names with weak fee capture.