Kid ASA - Revenues for the Fourth Quarter of 2025

Kid ASA reported modest top-line growth in Q4 2025 with Group revenues up 1.5% year‑on‑year to MNOK 1,452.5 (like‑for‑like +0.8%) and full‑year revenues up 2.6% to MNOK 3,944.6 (LFL +1.4%). Segment performance was mixed: Kid Interior delivered stronger momentum with Q4 revenues MNOK 873.6 (+4.4%, LFL +4.0%) and double‑digit online growth, while Hemtex declined in Q4 (MSEK 539.9, -2.6%, LFL -3.8%) but finished the year essentially flat at MSEK 1,421.5. Store footprint changes were minimal (Kid Interior 160 stores, Hemtex 134 stores) and online sales represented 13.7% of Group revenues in the quarter; the company will publish the full quarterly report on 11 February 2026.

Analysis

Market structure: Kid's quarter shows bifurcation—Kid Interior accelerating (Q4 +4.4%, online +23.5%) while Hemtex slides (Q4 -2.6%, online -8.2%). This implies modest share gains in home-decor within Norway/Franchise channels and rising channel mix towards higher-margin online sales, supporting incremental pricing power for Interior but limited group leverage given Hemtex stagnation.

Risk assessment: Near-term risks are Q4 report execution (Feb 11), markdown/inventory risk if demand softens, and FX translation (results reported constant-currency masks NOK/SEK swings). Tail scenarios: consumer shock driving >10% LFL declines, franchise store disputes, or a SEK collapse that materially hits Hemtex; monitor CPI, Norwegian consumer confidence, and inventory days over next 30–90 days.

Trade implications: Tactical long bias to Kid exposure ahead of Feb 11 to capture confirmation of online/margin trends; prefer defined-risk option structures to limit downside. Cross-asset: modest long NOK/short SEK exposure, underweight long-dated retail credit; consider pair trades vs larger, slower-moving incumbents to exploit execution differentiation.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may underweight Kid Interior’s online margin leverage—Interior online growth (+23.5%) can drive low-double-digit EBIT lift if sustained 12–18 months. Conversely, Hemtex weakness may be cyclical (store relocations, modest footprint changes) not structural; a knee-jerk selloff could create a 10–20% re-entry window for long-term exposure.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider establishing a 2–3% long position in Kid ASA (Oslo: KID) within 1–14 days ahead of the Q4 results on 11 Feb 2026; set a stop-loss at -8% and trim to half size at +15% within a 3-month horizon or sooner if group LFL < +0.5% or online growth falls below 10%.
• Buy a 3-month KID call spread sized to 1% of NAV (buy ATM call, sell 20% OTM call) to capture upside from Q4 confirmation while capping premium; target gross move >10–15% for payoff, max loss = net premium paid.
• Establish a market-neutral pair trade: Long Kid ASA (1.5% NAV) / Short Hennes & Mauritz (STO: HM-B) (1.5% NAV) for 3–6 months to exploit Kid's faster online momentum vs H&M's slower structural recovery; exit if relative P&L moves against position by >7%.
• Deploy a small FX tactical position long NOK/short SEK (0.5–1% NAV, spot or 1–3m forward) for 1–3 months to capture potential NOK support from stronger Norwegian retail data; unwind if NOK/SEK moves adversely by >2% or Swedish CPI surprises above consensus by >0.3ppt.