Is XRP (Ripple) on the Way to $1 in 2026? Here's Why It Looks Increasingly Likely.

XRP, created as a bridge currency for Ripple Payments, has slid 65% from its July 2025 record high of $3.65 to trade around $1.26 amid a broader crypto market decline that cut total market capitalization to $2.3 trillion (down 47% from last year). Structural headwinds—bridge currencies are typically not held long-term, Ripple Payments can operate without XRP by using fiat, and the launch of a Ripple USD stablecoin (RLUSD) on the XRP ledger further reduces payments-driven demand—leave the token vulnerable; the author forecasts XRP hitting $1 in 2026 with a downside scenario to $0.15 if a repeat of a past 96% post-peak collapse occurs.

Analysis

Market structure: Ripple’s payments stack and stablecoin (Ripple USD) shift demand from a volatile bridge token toward fiat-like rails; winners are stablecoin issuers, payment-rail integrators and exchanges that capture FX/rail fees, while pure-speculative holders of XRP and retail-focused market makers are losers. Expect sustained sell-side pressure: token is down 65% from $3.65 to $1.26 and absent new utility the float will be dominated by short-term sellers, compressing price and on-chain liquidity.

Risk assessment: Short-term (days–weeks) momentum risk dominates — watch for stop cascades below $1.00; medium-term (months) regulatory catalysts (SEC, EU crypto rules, bank pilot announcements) can cause ±40–70% moves; long-term (years) dependency on banks’ choice of fiat rails or CBDC rollouts could structurally erase demand for XRP. Tail risks include a major bank consortium adoption (sharp squeeze) or a regulatory ruling banning exchange listings (market blackout).

Trade implications: Implement small, defensible shorts and volatility trades: use 3–6 month put spreads to limit capital at risk and avoid funding tail risk in perpetual futures. Rotate cash from idiosyncratic crypto exposure into rate-sensitive havens (TLT) and exchange/infra equities that monetize volatility (consider +1–3% position in NDAQ or COIN analogs), and raise USD exposure as a hedge if risk-off intensifies.

Contrarian angles: Consensus overlooks operational levers Ripple controls (token unlock cadence, on-ledger fee policy, or targeted buybacks) that can rapidly alter supply dynamics; historical parallels show 2018-style collapses can produce multi-year basing followed by concentrated rallies. Set clear asymmetric entry rules: if XRP breaks $1 on high volume, accelerate short; if it reclaims $2.50 with 7-day volume >$2bn, flatten shorts and re-evaluate long optionality.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a tactical 1–2% portfolio short on XRP using 3-month put spreads (e.g., buy $1.00 strike, sell $0.60 strike) if XRP trades below $1.30, cap max loss to premium paid, target ROI 2–4x if XRP < $0.75 by expiry.
• Reduce direct crypto spot exposure by 2–5% and allocate 2–4% to long-duration Treasuries (TLT) to hedge risk-off; increase USD cash position by 1–3% to preserve optionality over next 90 days.
• Initiate a 1–3% long position in exchange/infra equities (Nasdaq/NDAQ or major crypto-exchange equities) to capture fees from elevated volatility; size with stop-loss at 12% and reassess in 6 months.
• Use pair trade: short XRP spot (size 1%) and simultaneous buy of a 3–6 month call on a leading stablecoin-denominated payment project or market-maker ETF proxy (size 1%) to express asymmetric view if Ripple USD adoption accelerates.
• Monitor specific triggers over next 30–90 days: (a) any bank pilot announcement using Ripple USD or XRP, (b) regulatory rulings affecting listings, (c) monthly XRP escrow release amounts; if (a) occurs and on-chain volume doubles (7-day avg >2x), cover shorts and pivot to a tactical long (up to 1%).