Ex-Dividend Reminder: MGIC Investment, Perella Weinberg Partners and KKR

MGIC Investment Corp. (MTG), Perella Weinberg Partners Class A (PWP) and KKR & Co. (KKR) go ex-dividend on 2/17/2026; MTG will pay $0.15 on 3/6/26, PWP $0.07 on 3/9/26 and KKR $0.185 on 3/3/26. The note highlights MTG's dividend equals ~0.55% of a $27.42 share price (implying a 2.19% annualized yield) and estimates ex-day impacts of -0.55% (MTG), -0.32% (PWP) and -0.18% (KKR); it also flags recent intraday moves of MTG +0.2%, PWP -7.8% and KKR -3.8%.

Analysis

Market structure: The ex-dividend mechanics here are trivial in cash terms (MTG 0.55%, PWP 0.32%, KKR 0.18%) so any material price moves reflect sentiment or idiosyncratic news, not income. MTG (mortgage insurer) is most sensitive to housing/credit cycles; KKR is a diversified asset manager with carry/buyback optionality; PWP (boutique advisory) is smallest and most liquidity‑sensitive — hence today's larger % moves likely reflect positioning and flow rather than fundamental dividend risk. Cross-asset impact is muted but watch mortgage spreads and 10‑yr yields: a +50bp move in mortgage spreads would meaningfully re-rate MTG credit and equity multiples.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include dividend cuts (liquidity squeeze at PWP), a spike in mortgage delinquencies or regulatory capital changes for MTG, and large markdowns in KKR’s private portfolios if markets deteriorate. Near term (days) expect mechanical ex‑div drops and potential volatility spikes in options; medium term (weeks/months) earnings, fund‑raising updates, or 10‑yr moves can change payout sustainability; long term depends on credit cycle and fee trends. Hidden dependency: MTG equity performance is highly levered to credit spreads and reserve adequacy; KKR's equity is levered to realizations and public market marks.

Trade implications: Favor tactical small‑size plays that exploit flow/volatility rather than dividend capture. Long MTG on a >3% ex‑div weakness if mortgage spreads are stable (target 10–15% mean reversion over 3 months, stop −8%). Short or buy puts on PWP into further downside momentum (use 3–6 week expirations) because liquidity and fee cyclicality amplify moves; consider overweight KKR on any >8% pullback given diversification and buyback optionality.

Contrarian angles: Consensus treats these as dividend stories; the real lever is credit/fee cycles and deal flow. PWP’s >7% day drop likely overdone absent new fundamentals — a measured options seller can harvest premium but beware continued negative news. Historical parallels: small-cap advisory firms move violently on single‑deal rumors and then mean‑revert; MTG can lag credit spreads on the downside. Monitor mortgage credit spread widening >50bps or 10‑yr >4.7% as a binary that would invalidate a bullish MTG stance.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in MTG (ticker MTG) if price falls to ≤ $26.50 within the next 5 trading days; set a 3‑month target of $30 (+9%) and a hard stop at $24.50 (≈ −8%).
• Initiate a 1–2% notional tactical short or buy 3–6 week put spreads on PWP after confirming continued weakness (enter if PWP falls another 3–6% intraday); cap loss at +5% adverse move and take profits on a 10–15% move lower.
• Add 1–2% overweight to KKR (KKR) on a pullback >8% from today’s level, horizon 6–12 months; use a 6‑month collar (sell calls ~5% OTM, buy puts ~8–10% OTM) to monetize yield while capping downside.
• Monitor these triggers within 30 days and adjust positions: sell/trim MTG if 10‑yr Treasury >4.7% or mortgage credit spreads widen >50bps; close PWP short if company announces material deal flow or reverses >5% in 7 trading days.