Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100 Stabilize with Nvidia Earnings, FOMC Ahead

US stock futures steadied in early Asian trade as regional equities rose (Nikkei +0.55%) ahead of the FOMC minutes and heavyweight earnings, though gains were muted amid valuation worries and fading bets on a December Fed cut; CME FedWatch shows December cut odds have fallen from 66.9% on Nov. 11 to 48.9% on Nov. 18. Dollar/yen hit a nine‑month high this week (peak 155.732, trading ~155.27) on concerns about Japanese fiscal spending, a weaker yen that has fueled carry flows into Asian risk assets, and helped lift demand for regional equities. Market direction now hinges on the FOMC minutes (hawkish tone would pressure equities, a focus on a cooling labor market would support them), Nvidia’s earnings (a beat could revive the 2025 AI-led rally), and upcoming US jobs data, with futures still trading below their 50‑day EMA — signaling a potentially volatile mid‑week session.

Analysis

US stock futures steadied in early Asian trade after regional equities advanced, with the Nikkei leading gains at +0.55% and E‑mini futures up (Dow +38, Nasdaq 100 +13, S&P 500 +5). Gains were muted by valuation concerns and a marked reduction in Fed easing expectations: the CME FedWatch implied probability of a December rate cut fell from 66.9% on Nov. 11 to 48.9% on Nov. 18.

Monetary policy commentary is the proximate market driver ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes; several Fed speakers have emphasized elevated prices, so a hawkish reading would likely pressure risk assets, while focus on a cooling labor market could provide relief. USD/JPY climbed to a nine‑month high this week (peak 155.732, trading ~155.266), with a weaker yen supporting carry flows into Asian equities and amplifying regional risk sensitivity.

Nvidia’s upcoming earnings represent a binary corporate catalyst: a strong beat could revive the 2025 AI‑led rally and improve broader risk appetite, whereas disappointing results would likely exacerbate the current pullback. Technicals remain cautious—US futures are trading below their 50‑day EMA—so near‑term volatility will hinge on the FOMC minutes, Nvidia’s report, and forthcoming US jobs data.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce directional equity exposure or add hedges ahead of the FOMC minutes and Nvidia earnings given elevated volatility risk and futures trading below the 50‑day EMA
• Trim or hedge Asia/Japan FX‑sensitive positions if USD/JPY sustains near 155–156, as continued yen weakness is driving carry flows that can reverse quickly on policy or fiscal headlines
• Treat NVDA as a binary event: avoid initiating large new long positions pre‑print, consider scaling exposure only on a clear beat or using short‑dated downside protection
• Monitor CME FedWatch probabilities and the tone of the Minutes; a hawkish tilt should trigger risk reduction and a temporary shift toward defensive exposures until clarity on inflation vs. labor‑market emphasis emerges