Japan’s Nikkei stock index jumps nearly 5% after its ruling party picked Takaichi to lead

Japan's Nikkei 225 index surged 4.7% and the yen weakened to 150.31 against the dollar following the ruling LDP's selection of Sanae Takaichi, an ally of former PM Shinzo Abe, as its new leader, signaling a continuation of market-friendly policies and expectations of increased spending. This positive sentiment, which saw significant gains in Japanese automakers, contributed to broader market optimism, with U.S. futures climbing and crude oil gaining about $1 per barrel after OPEC+ agreed to a modest output increase amid a steady global economic outlook.

Analysis

Japan’s Nikkei stock index jumps nearly 5% after its ruling party picked Takaichi to lead Japan’s Nikkei stock index jumps nearly 5% after its ruling party picked Takaichi to lead Japan’s Nikkei stock index jumped nearly 5% on Monday and the yen weakened after its ruling party chose an ultra-conservative as its leader and likely first woman prime minister. Other Asian markets also were mostly higher. U.S. futures climbed and oil gained about $1 a barrel. The Liberal Democrats elected Sanae Takaichi, an ally of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as their leader, likely ensuring she will carry on with his market-friendly policies. Takaichi, 64, admires former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and backed Abe’s ultra-conservative vision for the country. She is likely to become prime minister because the LDP has the most seats in the lower house, although not a majority. It chooses the prime minister, and opposition groups are splintered. Takaichi faces a host of challenges that have bedeviled her predecessors, BMI of Fitch Solutions said in a commentary. That includes “boosting Japan’s economic competitiveness and strengthening the country’s technological and industrial base and adopting measures to mitigate the impact of Japan’s ageing and declining population amid a colossal public debt burden.” Still investors, especially non-Japanese ones, were pleased, said Neil Newman, head of strategy at Astris Advisory Japan. “Obviously investors like what she has been saying and certainly today judging by the number of stocks that moved and which stocks moved, it seems like pretty much led by foreigners so far,” Newman said. An unconfirmed report that U.S. President Donald Trump might be considering ways to reduce the cost of his higher tariffs on auto parts and other materials for U.S. manufacturers helped automakers’ share prices. Toyota Motor Corp.'s shares jumped 4.9% in Tokyo and Honda Motor Co. gained 4.7%. The Nikkei 225 index rose 4.7% to 47,924.52 by mid-afternoon Monday, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index sank 0.6% to 26,976.37. The yen weakened against the U.S. dollar, on expectations that Takaichi will boost spending, likely adding to inflationary pressures. The dollar rose to 150.31 Japanese yen from 149.33 yen. The euro slipped to $1.1723 from $1.1730. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.1% to 8,976.70. Markets in mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea were closed for holidays. On Friday, most U.S. stocks ticked higher, adding to Wall Street records. The S&P 500 edged up by less than 0.1% to close out its seventh winning week in the last nine, ending at 6,715.79. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.5% to 46,758.28. Both added to their all-time highs set the day before. The Nasdaq composite lost an early gain and slipped 0.3% from its own record, to 22,780.51. Usually, the first Friday of each month has Wall Street transfixed on the monthly jobs update that the U.S. government publishes. It shows how many jobs employers created and destroyed, while also updating the unemployment rate. But the shutdown of the U.S. government, now in its third day, delayed the release of that data. Such information is particularly important now, given how much on Wall Street is riding on the expectation that the job market is continuing to slow by enough to get the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates. Past shutdowns of the U.S. government have tended not to hurt the economy or stock market much, and the thinking is that this one could be similar, even if President Donald Trump has threatened large-scale firings of federal workers this time around. Reports came in mixed on activity for U.S. businesses in the health care, real estate and other services industries. One from the Institute for Supply Management said growth is stalling, while another from S&P Global said it’s still growing slowly. In other dealings early Monday, U.S. benchmark crude oil gained 99 cents to $61.87 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, added 99 cents to $65.52 per barrel. A group of countries that are part of the OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries agreed during the weekend to a small boost in oil production, citing a steady global economic outlook. That alleviated fears of an oversupply. The group said after a virtual meeting on Sunday that it will raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, they same amount it announced for October. The group has been raising output slightly in a series of boosts all year, after announcing cuts in 2023 and 2024. A significant repricing of Japanese assets occurred following the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's selection of Sanae Takaichi as its new leader. The market interpreted this as a signal for the continuation of pro-growth, market-friendly policies, sparking a nearly 5% rally in the Nikkei 225 index to 47,924.52. This move was reportedly led by foreign investors, as confirmed by Astris Advisory Japan. The policy expectations also drove a notable weakening of the yen, with the USD/JPY cross rising to 150.31 from 149.33 on the prospect of increased government spending and potential inflationary pressure. Japanese automakers were standout performers, with Toyota Motor and Honda Motor gaining 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, buoyed by both the broad market optimism and an unconfirmed report of potential U.S. tariff relief. While this political development fueled a risk-on sentiment in Japan, it contrasted with a more subdued regional picture, as Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declined 0.6%. Furthermore, BMI of Fitch Solutions provides a crucial counterpoint, highlighting that Japan's long-term structural headwinds, including a colossal public debt and adverse demographics, remain significant challenges. Separately, the energy market exhibited stability as OPEC+ agreed to a modest 137,000 barrel-per-day production increase, suggesting confidence in the global economic outlook and alleviating oversupply fears.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider the renewed bullish sentiment towards Japanese equities, particularly export-oriented sectors like automakers which benefit from both a weaker yen and potential trade tailwinds.
• Given the yen's sharp depreciation to 150.31 per dollar on expectations of fiscal expansion, it is prudent to hedge yen-denominated asset exposure or consider strategies that capitalize on further yen weakness.
• While capitalizing on the short-term political catalyst, investors must monitor for any concrete policy action from the new leadership to address Japan's long-term structural issues, such as public debt and demographic decline, which pose a risk to sustained growth.
• The delay in U.S. jobs data due to the government shutdown introduces a key uncertainty for Federal Reserve policy, warranting a cautious stance on rate-sensitive assets until this critical economic information is released.