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Corn Pushes Higher ahead of the Holiday on Spillover Support

NDAQ
Commodities & Raw MaterialsCommodity FuturesEnergy Markets & Prices
Corn Pushes Higher ahead of the Holiday on Spillover Support

Corn futures saw gains across most contracts on Wednesday, with nearby July up 2 cents to close at $4.33 1/2. The EIA reported a slight decrease in ethanol production to 1.109 million barrels per day, while ethanol stocks increased to 24.12 million barrels; export sales data is expected Friday, with traders anticipating corn bookings between 600,000 MT and 1.2 MMT for 2024/25.

Analysis

Corn futures exhibited strength across most contracts on Wednesday, with the nearby July contract advancing by 2 cents to $4.33 1/2, while September 2025 and December 2025 contracts each rose by 5 1/4 cents, closing at $4.29 and $4.44 respectively. This upward movement was mirrored in the cash markets, where the CmdtyView national average cash corn price increased by 1/4 cent to $4.08, and New Crop Cash saw a more significant gain of 5 1/4 cents to $4.01 1/8. The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly report indicated a slight moderation in ethanol production, which fell by 11,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the prior week's record to 1.109 million bpd. Concurrently, ethanol stockpiles increased by 386,000 barrels, reaching 24.12 million barrels, potentially signaling a slight near-term supply build. However, ethanol exports provided a positive counterpoint, rising by 12,000 bpd to 163,000 bpd, and refiner inputs of ethanol also saw a modest increase of 5,000 bpd to 910,000 bpd. Market participants are now anticipating the release of Export Sales data on Friday, delayed due to the Juneteenth holiday, with trade estimates for 2024/25 corn bookings for the week ending June 12 ranging from 600,000 metric tons (MT) to 1.2 million MT, and new crop sales projected between 0 and 200,000 MT.

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Market Sentiment

Overall Sentiment

moderately positive

Sentiment Score

0.40

Ticker Sentiment

NDAQ0.00

Key Decisions for Investors

  • Investors should closely scrutinize the upcoming Export Sales data on Friday, as robust figures within or exceeding the 600,000 MT to 1.2 MMT expectation for 2024/25 bookings could sustain the current positive price momentum.
  • The mixed signals from the EIA ethanol report, specifically the dip in production versus the rise in stocks alongside increased exports, warrant careful monitoring to assess the net impact on corn demand fundamentals.
  • Consider potential short-term volatility and positioning adjustments around the delayed government reports, as these figures will provide crucial updates to the supply and demand outlook for corn.