Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 26th, 2025 (Podcast)

On September 26, 2025, Bloomberg Surveillance featured discussions on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy trajectory with former Fed President James Bullard, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, and HSBC's Ryan Wang, analyzing recent economic data and the PCE print. Concurrently, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis revealed ongoing movement among EU member states to issue joint debt to finance a significant boost in defense spending, indicating a potentially material shift in European fiscal and defense policy.

Analysis

Two distinct macroeconomic narratives are currently commanding investor attention. In the United States, the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation print is a pivotal data point, actively reshaping the economic outlooks of institutions like HSBC, as noted by their US Economist, Ryan Wang. The significance of this data is underscored by its analysis from both a former policymaker, James Bullard, and a current one, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, indicating its central role in determining the future trajectory of monetary policy. Concurrently, a potentially material shift in European fiscal and defense policy is emerging. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has signaled that there is 'movement' among European Union member states to issue joint debt specifically to finance a 'defense spending boost.' This development, if it materializes, would represent a significant step towards fiscal integration for the bloc, driven by geopolitical imperatives, and could have long-term structural implications for European sovereign debt markets and the defense industry.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the full details of the latest PCE data and subsequent commentary from Federal Reserve officials, as this is the key variable currently influencing US monetary policy expectations.
• The potential for joint EU debt issuance for defense spending introduces a new, significant macro theme; watch for any formal proposals, as this could impact European bond yields, the euro, and valuations in the defense sector.
• Given the dual focus on US inflation dynamics and a potential European fiscal pivot, it is prudent to assess portfolio sensitivity to both interest rate changes and evolving geopolitical risk factors.