Macquarie reiterates Neutral rating on Core Scientific stock at $15

Macquarie maintained a Neutral rating on Core Scientific (CORZ) as its revenue missed expectations due to Bitcoin mining wind-down, though earnings beat on HPC strength, with its pending merger with CoreWeave (CRWV) awaiting approvals. CoreWeave faces mixed analyst sentiment, with some firms raising price targets while BofA lowered its target and HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating due to margin concerns, despite significant institutional block trading activity and recent share price weakness post-lock-up expiry.

Analysis

Core Scientific's (CORZ) Neutral rating from Macquarie is anchored by a strategic pivot, where a deliberate wind-down of its Bitcoin mining operations resulted in a revenue miss, yet strength in its high-performance computing (HPC) business drove an earnings beat. The central catalyst for CORZ is its pending merger with CoreWeave (CRWV), with Macquarie awaiting clarity from the shareholder vote and regulatory approvals before altering its stance. CoreWeave itself presents a complex picture of divergent analyst sentiment. While BofA Securities described its recent results as "solid," it lowered its price target to $168, citing near-term overhangs. Conversely, Macquarie raised its target substantially to $115 from $65 on higher earnings expectations. This contrasts sharply with HSBC's "Reduce" rating and $32 price target, which flags significant concerns over future margin performance with EPS estimates notably below consensus. Adding to this complex outlook are market technicals, including recent share price weakness at CoreWeave post-lock-up expiry and significant block trades conducted by major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs in the mid-$90s, indicating substantial institutional interest at those levels.

Key Decisions for Investors

• For Core Scientific (CORZ), the investment case is now predominantly a merger-arbitrage play contingent on the CoreWeave deal's success; focus should be on tracking shareholder vote outcomes and regulatory news, as these are the primary value drivers.
• Investors assessing CoreWeave (CRWV) face significant valuation uncertainty, evidenced by the extreme dispersion in analyst price targets ($32 to $168), and should prioritize scrutinizing the underlying assumptions regarding future margin sustainability and growth.
• The recent large institutional block trades of CoreWeave shares in the mid-$90s offer a tangible benchmark for current institutional valuation, which should be considered a key reference point against more optimistic analyst targets, particularly given the stock's recent post-lock-up weakness.