Forget FMC: Instead Buy This Unstoppable Farming Titan That's Up 11% in 2025 and Still Running

FMC has suffered a severe downturn this year (shares down ~73% YTD), slashed its quarterly dividend from $0.48 to $0.08, traded as low as $12.17, and now sits at a forward P/E of about 6 amid analyst downgrades and credit concerns that could pressure margins and market share. By contrast Deere is up ~11% YTD and is pursuing a strategic pivot into AI-enabled, recurring services — management targets 10% annualized sales growth and 20% operating margins (recent margins ~17%) — with analysts forecasting EPS to rise ~49% between fiscal 2026 and 2028; Deere trades at ~28x forward earnings with a ~1.38% forward yield. For investors, the note frames FMC as a high-uncertainty turnaround candidate while Deere offers a clearer growth/recurring-revenue path that could justify its premium multiple if execution and agricultural fundamentals improve.

Analysis

Market structure: Winners are Deere (DE) and aftermarket/recurring-revenue suppliers (telemetry, software partners) as AI-enabled services expand gross margins; losers are fertilizer/chemical names (FMC, CF, MOS) facing weak farm incomes, dividend cuts and margin pressure. Competitive dynamics favor OEMs with proprietary data and dealer networks — pricing power shifts from one-off equipment sales to recurring service ARPU; fertilizer producers face commoditized pricing and potential market-share erosion. Cross-asset: a FMC credit downgrade implies wider IG spreads and higher CDS costs (>>100–300bps move risk); implied vol should remain elevated for FMC options while DE vol is structurally lower; fertilizer/commodity moves will feed FX (USD agricultural export sensitivity) and ag-commodity futures volatility.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a supply shock (weather-driven crop losses) that spikes fertilizer demand and reverses FMC pricing (30–100% commodity price moves); regulatory/antitrust scrutiny on Deere’s data practices could slow subscription uptake. Time horizons: immediate (days) — earnings and USDA reports; short-term (weeks–months) — planting season and dealer inventory adjustments; long-term (2026–2030) — execution of DE’s target ~10% CAGR and 20% operating margin. Hidden dependencies: dealer acceptance, connectivity penetration, and farmer willingness to pay subscriptions; catalysts that will accelerate or reverse trends are DE ARR disclosures, FMC liquidity/credit events, and crop-price inflection.

Trade implications: Direct play — long DE for 12–24 months to capture services rerating; short selective fertilizer names (FMC) for near-term downside and credit spread widening. Pair trade — long DE vs short CNHI to express tech/recurring-revenue premium capture; options — use 12–18 month DE call spreads (LEAPS) to limit capital and buy FMC 3–6 month put spreads to express tail-risk. Sector rotation: overweight ag equipment/software suppliers and ag-tech partners; underweight fertilizer chemical producers and cyclical input distributors. Entry/exit: establish initial positions on <5% pullbacks, add on >10% move, and set tactical stops at 10–12% loss or fundamental reversal.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates execution risk — DE’s 28x forward P/E already prices successful monetization; if subscription adoption stalls, downside could be 20–30%. Conversely FMC may be over-sold: a single seasonal shock or activist/debt restructuring could produce >50% recovery. Historical parallels: hardware-to-services transitions (e.g., Cisco/Adobe/MSFT) show multi-year lag between roadmap and margin realization — patience + convex exposure (options) wins. Unintended consequences: aggressive telematics monetization could trigger regulation or dealer backlash, compressing DE multiple despite revenue growth.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long position in Deere & Co (DE) for a 12–24 month horizon to capture services-driven rerating; add another 1–2% if DE falls >10% from current levels or forward P/E drops to ≤22; set a tactical stop-loss at -12% within 3 months if macro/ARR metrics deteriorate.
• Initiate a 1.5% long DE / 1.5% short CNHI pair trade (equal notional) to express relative execution advantage; close or rebalance if spread narrows by 25% or within 12 months if CNHI outperforms materially.
• Open a small asymmetric downside position in FMC: buy 3–6 month put spreads (size 0.5–1% of portfolio) targeting 30–50% downside while capping premium; unwind if FMC management restores dividend to >$0.20 or credit spreads tighten by >200bps.
• Deploy options convexity: buy a 12–18 month DE call-debit spread (LEAPS) sized to 1–2% exposure with strikes that generate 40–60% upside target, and separately buy short-dated FMC put spreads to monetize elevated IV around near-term catalysts (earnings, USDA).
• Monitor three specific triggers over the next 90 days: Deere quarterly ARR/subscription growth >30% YoY and operating margin ≥18% (add 1–2%), USDA planting/stock reports that move crop-price futures >10% (rebalance), and any FMC credit-rating action or dividend guidance change (close short or convert to long-recovery trade).