The S&P 500, Dow & Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of September 2025

The article provides an updated analysis of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite performance through September 2025, emphasizing their distinct compositions and inflation-adjusted returns. In September, the Nasdaq led with a 5.3% real month-over-month gain, followed by the S&P 500 at 3.2% and the Dow at 1.6%. While all three indices have shown robust real growth over the past decade (e.g., Nasdaq +137%), the long-term perspective since their respective 2000 peaks reveals more modest real compounded annual returns for tracking ETFs (SPY, DIA, QQQ), ranging from 4.74% to 5.15%, highlighting the significant impact of inflation on multi-decade equity performance.

Analysis

A review of major U.S. indices through September 2025 highlights the continued outperformance of the technology sector alongside the significant long-term impact of inflation. For the month, the Nasdaq posted a real (inflation-adjusted) gain of 5.3%, substantially outpacing the S&P 500's 3.2% and the Dow's 1.6%. This recent strength is consistent with a decade-long trend where the Nasdaq has grown 137% in real terms, versus 131% for the S&P 500 and 109% for the Dow. However, a multi-decade analysis since the 2000 market peaks reveals a more sobering picture of real returns. An investment in the S&P 500-tracking ETF (SPY) yielded a real compounded annual return of 5.15%, while the Dow-tracking ETF (DIA) produced 5.07%. Notably, despite its recent leadership, the Nasdaq-100-tracking ETF (QQQ) delivered the lowest real compounded annual return of the group at 4.74% from its March 2000 peak, underscoring the severe and lasting impact of investing at high valuation levels and the subsequent erosion of purchasing power by inflation over the 25-year period.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the Nasdaq's superior real monthly gain of 5.3%, investors with a shorter-term horizon should consider maintaining or increasing exposure to technology and growth-oriented assets to capitalize on current market momentum.
• The analysis demonstrates a significant divergence between nominal and real returns; it is critical to evaluate all long-term holdings and performance benchmarks on an inflation-adjusted basis to accurately assess true wealth creation.
• The Nasdaq's (QQQ) lower real compounded annual return since its 2000 peak, despite recent outperformance, serves as a key risk indicator, suggesting investors should remain vigilant about entry valuations in high-growth sectors to avoid long periods of subpar real returns.