Goldman Sachs says crypto prices may have bottomed and these stocks have attractive setups

Stocks tied to crypto are down 46% since their October 2025 peak, and Goldman Sachs says crypto prices may have troughed and sees selective buying opportunities. Goldman has buy ratings on Figure, Robinhood and Coinbase, raised Figure's price target to $42 from $39 (Figure closed at $31, implying ~35% upside), and kept upside on Robinhood and Coinbase despite lowering their PTs. The bank warns volumes could fall further, potentially reducing 2026 revenue by ~2% and profits by ~4%, with trough crypto volumes typically lasting a median of three months.

Analysis

The current setup favors businesses that extract revenue away from spot volume sensitivity — subscription/prime fees, derivatives flow, and capital-light origination models. Firms that can reprice product mix (higher ARPA per active user) or securitize receivables scale revenue without 1:1 dependence on retail trade counts, creating asymmetric upside when volumes normalize.

Second-order winners include institutional execution venues, prime brokers, and derivatives market-makers that pick up cyclical flow as retail spot softens; conversely, custody/mining suppliers and leveraged retail props are the weak links because they need higher spot levels to sustain margin and balance-sheet health. Expect concentrated counterparty and funding risk among smaller OTC desks to show up before broad market stress — watch repo lines, margin calls, and prime-broker exposures.

Timing and catalysts bifurcate: technical/positioning fixes can play out in weeks, product-driven revenue shifts in quarters, and regulatory or securitization outcomes over 12–24 months. Key indicators to watch are non-spot revenue share, derivatives notional and open interest, cash months of runway for platform operators, and on-chain stablecoin flows — any adverse move in these within a 3–9 month window can reverse equity gains quickly.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long Robinhood (HOOD) via 6–12 month call spread sized 0.5–1% NAV: play higher-ARPA product mix. Target asymmetric 30–50% upside; stop if HOOD falls 20% from entry or if monthly active users decline sequentially for two months.
• Long Coinbase (COIN) 9–18 month call spread (defined-risk) sized 0.5% NAV to capture derivatives/prime-revenue optionality, hedge with a small short position in a high-BTC-exposure equity (e.g., MSTR) to reduce pure-spot beta. Expect payoff if derivatives notional growth >20% YoY; tighten if SEC/regulatory action escalates.
• Accumulate Figure exposure opportunistically (equity or structured note) sized 0.25–0.75% NAV if quarterly origination/securitization cadence confirms scale — reward is multiple expansion from capital-light growth; tail risk is loss recognition on HELOC pools or funding squeeze within 6–12 months.
• Volatility trade: buy a small 3–6 month straddle on COIN (size 0.25% NAV) to monetize a rebound in realized vol and volumes. This is a tactical hedge against underpriced event risk; cap loss to premium paid and take profits if IV rises 50%+.
• Pair trade: long HOOD / short COIN equal-dollar for 6–12 months (size 0.5% NAV) to express preference for fee-diversified retail platform over pure-exchange spot sensitivity. Cut the pair if BTC rallies >30% in 30 days or if derivatives open interest favors COIN by >25% sequentially.