Soybeans Higher to Start Thursday Trade

Soybean futures ticked modestly higher on Thursday (1–3¢) while cash beans were slightly lower and soymeal softened as soyoil showed gains; open interest fell ~9,600 contracts and four deliveries were issued against December soybean oil. USDA private export sales included 136,000 MT to China, 119,000 MT to unknown destinations and shipments of 212,000 MT in the period, plus 120,000 MT of soybean meal to Poland; traders expect the weekly USDA Export Sales report to show 0.6–1.4 MMT of soybean sales. The USDA/NASS fats & oils report showed robust crush activity—September crush 204.93m bu (+9.9% y/y) and a record October crush of 237m bu (+9.9% y/y)—while bean oil stocks rose 11.9% to 1.781 bln lb, and managed-money funds added 15,760 contracts to lift net longs to 194,443. External supply signals were mixed: CONAB trimmed Brazil’s soybean crop to 177.12 MMT (-0.48 MMT) and China’s Sinograin sold 397,000 MT of imported beans, leaving the market set between stronger domestic crush demand and ample oil stocks, with the upcoming USDA export report a likely near-term catalyst.

Analysis

Soybean futures moved modestly higher (1–4¢ across contracts midweek) while the national cash bean price was reported lower by roughly 4.25¢ to $10.21 3/4 and open interest fell 9,608 contracts on Wednesday; soymeal softened (down up to $3.10) even as soybean oil futures gained 7–11 points and four deliveries were issued against December soybean oil. Recent trade data show USDA private export sales of 136,000 MT to China, 119,000 MT to unknown destinations and an additional 212,000 MT in the period, plus 120,000 MT of soybean meal to Poland, with traders penciling in 0.6–1.4 MMT of weekly soybean sales for Thursday’s Export Sales report. USDA/NASS fats & oils data show robust domestic processing demand—September crush 204.93m bu (+9.89% y/y) and a record October crush at 237m bu (+9.86% y/y)—but bean oil stocks are up 11.89% y/y to 1.781 bln lb, signaling simultaneous strong crush and growing oil inventories. Managed-money positioning adds a market-structure layer: CTA/managed funds added 15,760 contracts to take net longs to 194,443 as of Nov. 10, while CONAB trimmed Brazil’s crop to 177.12 MMT (-0.48 MMT) and China’s Sinograin sold 397,000 MT of imports—together creating a near-term balance between bullish headline demand and bearish inventory pressure. The immediate catalyst is Thursday’s export sales print; a stronger-than-expected report would likely validate the managed-money longs and push prices higher, while weaker-than-expected sales or continued stock builds in bean oil could reverse gains given recent cash weakness and falling open interest.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor Thursday’s USDA Export Sales closely and consider a tactical, size-limited long (or call spread) if weekly soybean sales print at the high end of the 0.6–1.4 MMT range,
• Maintain risk management given rising bean oil stocks (+11.9% y/y) and recent cash softness—use puts, collars, or reduce exposure rather than outright large directional positions
• Watch managed-money net long builds and open interest: if net longs continue to rise and OI recovers, be prepared for higher volatility and tighten stops or hedge existing positions