Mirae's Mohanty on Where to Invest in India

Bloomberg Insight reports from late 2025 indicate significant market apprehension over potential future Trump administration policies, including a proposed 100% tariff on branded drugs, which is unsettling Indian pharmaceutical companies, and a $100k H-1B visa fee, deemed illegal by experts, with broader visa policy uncertainty threatening billions in investments. Concurrently, market sentiment is reportedly shifting regarding China's investment viability.

Analysis

Market sentiment in late September 2025 is characterized by significant apprehension stemming from potential future US administration policies, registering a moderately negative sentiment score of -0.55 and a high market impact score of 0.65. A proposed 100% tariff on branded drugs is creating specific headwinds for Indian pharmaceutical companies. Concurrently, a proposed $100,000 fee for H-1B visas, which has been described as 'illegal' by an immigration lawyer, coupled with broader 'visa chaos', is reported to threaten billions in investments for US industries reliant on foreign talent. This environment of policy-driven uncertainty in the US contrasts with a separate market discussion questioning if China is 'No Longer 'Uninvestable'', indicating a potential re-evaluation of global emerging market risk and opportunity.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should immediately review and potentially reduce exposure to Indian pharmaceutical companies that have significant branded drug exports to the US, given the severe risk posed by a potential 100% tariff.
• It is critical to assess the H-1B dependency of portfolio companies, as proposed visa fee hikes and policy uncertainty could materially increase operating costs and create talent acquisition challenges.
• Consider the potential for a strategic reallocation within emerging market portfolios, as negative US-centric policy risks may be diverging from a potentially improving sentiment towards Chinese assets.