Best-Performing ETF Areas of Last Week That Are Up At Least 10%

Wall Street experienced a downbeat week, with major indices declining, even as August 2025 PCE inflation data largely met expectations, reinforcing forecasts for two Fed rate cuts by year-end. This occurred alongside an upwardly revised Q2 2025 U.S. GDP growth of 3.8% and slightly weaker September consumer sentiment. President Trump's announcement of new tariffs (30-100%) on various imports starting October 1, 2025, also shaped the economic landscape, leading to notable outperformance in platinum, palladium, lithium, and silver ETFs driven by supply-demand imbalances, potential government intervention in critical minerals, and increased safe-haven/industrial demand.

Analysis

The U.S. equity market displayed a notable divergence last week, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declining by 0.3% and 0.7% respectively, while specific commodity-linked ETFs posted double-digit gains. This occurred against a backdrop of mixed macroeconomic signals. On one hand, an upwardly revised Q2 2025 GDP growth of 3.8% and in-line August PCE inflation data (2.9% core annual rate) supported expectations for two more Fed rate cuts by year-end, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating an 87.7% chance of a 25 bp cut in October. On the other hand, a fresh wave of trade policy risk emerged with President Trump's announcement of new tariffs ranging from 30% to 100% on various imports, creating market uncertainty. This environment has driven significant outperformance in targeted assets. Platinum and Palladium ETFs (PLTM, PPLT, PALL) surged over 10% due to a confluence of supply constraints, including a projected 6% drop in South African mine supply, and strong industrial demand, potentially amplified by a policy shift away from EVs that increases demand for catalytic converters. The lithium sector, particularly Lithium Americas (LAC), skyrocketed on reports of a potential U.S. government equity stake in its Thacker Pass mine, highlighting the strategic importance of critical minerals. Silver also benefited from its dual role as a safe-haven asset amid trade tensions and an industrial metal supported by strong economic activity.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider overweighting positions in platinum and palladium (PPLT, PALL) to capitalize on the tightening supply-demand imbalance, which is reinforced by policy tailwinds potentially boosting catalytic converter demand.
• Investors should evaluate specific opportunities in the lithium sector, such as Lithium Americas (LAC), as direct government intervention signals a strong strategic imperative to secure critical mineral supply chains, potentially de-risking certain projects.
• Maintain a cautious stance on broad market indices, as robust GDP figures are being offset by the significant and unpredictable impact of newly announced tariffs, warranting a focus on sectors less exposed to these specific import duties.
• Monitor silver (SLVR) as a potential hedge, given its dual mandate as a safe-haven asset in a market rattled by trade policy and an industrial commodity benefiting from strong underlying economic activity.