Trisura Group is a peppy, young specialty insurer with a pedigree

TSU.TO is still being priced like a scaled-up niche insurer, but the more important setup is operating leverage in a fragmented specialty market. If management can keep loss discipline intact while writing more U.S. business, incremental premium growth should drop disproportionately to book value, which is the compounding engine here; that makes the stock more sensitive to underwriting slippage than to headline growth. The market is likely underestimating how much of the value creation path now depends on maintaining scarcity value in lines where larger carriers can still underwrite, but often with less focus and lower service intensity.

The second-order implication of the U.S. expansion is that Trisura may be building a distribution and licensing moat rather than just buying revenue. Full-state access and a broader surety footprint can reduce friction costs over time, but they also invite faster competitor response from better-capitalized incumbents if pricing stays attractive. In specialty insurance, the first phase of growth is usually easy; the risk is that expanded reach tempts management to chase premium volume just as claims frequency normalizes, which would show up first in the combined ratio before it hits book value.

The key contrarian angle is that the story is not about size, it's about persistently above-cost-of-capital underwriting plus reinvestment. Consensus may focus too much on book value growth as a backward-looking scorecard, when the real question is whether that growth is repeatable at scale without reserve deterioration. If Trisura can keep the combined ratio in the mid-80s for another 12-18 months, the multiple can rerate materially; if it drifts into the low 90s, the market will likely treat it as just another insurer with less room for error.