Right-sized American summer: 2025 Deloitte summer travel survey

Deloitte's ConsumerSignals indicates that despite a decline in financial well-being, 53% of Americans plan to take leisure vacations this summer, up from 48% in 2024, signaling a post-pandemic high in travel incidence. While travel incidence and frequency are up, the average summer travel budget growth decreased from 21% to 13% between late March and early April, suggesting a more frugal approach with travelers opting for driving over flying, fewer international trips, and reduced spending on in-destination experiences; simultaneously, inbound travel to the US has weakened, with non-citizen arrivals down 10% year-on-year in March.

Analysis

Deloitte's ConsumerSignals for April 2025 indicates a nuanced shift in American travel intentions: despite a reported decline in financial well-being, 53% of Americans plan leisure vacations this summer, up from 48% in 2024, suggesting one of the highest travel incidence rates post-pandemic and an increase in trip frequency. However, this heightened travel activity is coupled with increased frugality; projected average summer travel budget growth moderated from 21% year-on-year in late March to 13% by early April. This contrasts with summer 2024's pattern of fewer, but more lavishly spending, travelers. The current trend points towards consumers making specific adjustments to fit smaller budgets, such as favoring driving over flying, reducing international trips and destination resort stays, and cutting back on certain in-destination experiences. Further impacting the sector, government data reveals a 10% year-on-year decrease in non-citizen arrivals to the U.S. in March, including a significant 14% drop in European visitors. This combination of higher domestic travel volume with constrained per-trip spending and weaker inbound tourism signals a potentially more challenging summer for the travel industry, necessitating nimble strategies from providers focused on value and targeted offers.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Re-evaluate travel sector investments to favor companies catering to budget-conscious domestic travelers and reassess exposure to those dependent on high-spend international tourists or luxury segments, given the observed shift in spending patterns.
• Exercise caution with investments in US assets heavily reliant on inbound international tourism due to the reported 10% year-on-year decline in non-citizen arrivals and the notable 14% drop from European visitors.
• Identify potential opportunities in businesses supporting domestic road travel, regional tourism, and value-oriented accommodations, reflecting the consumer preference for driving and more frugal trip planning.
• Closely monitor evolving consumer financial well-being metrics and actual travel booking data, as the significant revision to spending plans within a short period highlights the sensitivity of travel demand to economic conditions and the potential for further adjustments.