Corn Ends USDA Report Day with Gains

Corn futures saw fractional gains, limited by a wet forecast in the Corn Belt. Weekly export sales hit a 9-week low at 791,327 MT for old crop corn, with Japan as the top buyer. The USDA's WASDE report increased the US export projection by 50 million bushels, lowering old crop US ending stocks to 1.365 billion bushels, while CONAB data increased Brazil's corn crop estimate by 1.38 MMT to 128.25 MMT.

Analysis

Corn futures registered marginal gains, with most contracts closing fractionally to 1 ½ cents higher; for instance, July 2025 corn settled at $4.38 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents, while the front month CmdtyView national average cash corn price rose 1 1/2 cents to $4.15. However, a wet forecast for the U.S. Corn Belt over the upcoming week tempered enthusiasm, particularly limiting upside potential for new crop contracts. Demand indicators were soft, as weekly old crop export sales fell to a 9-week low of 791,327 metric tons, with Japan being the largest buyer, and new crop sales posted net reductions of 29,550 MT. Conversely, the USDA's June WASDE report provided some bullish impetus: the U.S. old crop export projection was raised by 50 million bushels, leading to a corresponding drop in old crop ending stocks to 1.365 billion bushels, a larger reduction than the average trade estimate of a 23 million bushel cut. This tightening extended to U.S. new crop carryout, which was revised down by the same 50 million bushels to 1.75 billion bushels due to the smaller carry-in. On the global front, the USDA lowered its 2024/25 world ending stock forecast by 2.25 MMT to 285.04 MMT, and separately noted new crop world stocks down 2.6 MMT to 275.24 MMT. South American production estimates from the USDA remained unchanged, with Argentina at 50 MMT and Brazil at 130 MMT (contrary to some expectations of a hike for Brazil), though this contrasted with CONAB's data, which increased Brazil's corn crop estimate by 1.38 MMT to 128.25 MMT, primarily due to a 1.2 MMT larger second crop assessment.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should acknowledge the supportive USDA revisions to U.S. corn inventories, particularly the larger-than-expected cut in old crop stocks, but carefully balance this against the recent downturn in export sales and CONAB's indication of potentially larger Brazilian supplies.
• Monitor near-term weather developments in the U.S. Corn Belt and their impact on crop progress, as the current wet forecast is a key factor capping price advances and will be critical for new crop yield determination.
• Analyze upcoming export sales reports for any signs of demand resurgence and observe how the differing USDA and CONAB Brazilian production forecasts evolve, as this divergence impacts global supply expectations and price discovery.