US stocks today: Wall Street inches higher as markets eye ceasefire deadline; Dow jumps 300 points, S&P 500 remains flat

The market is treating the ceasefire extension as a clean risk-on catalyst, but the more important second-order effect is the compression of the geopolitical risk premium rather than any durable improvement in fundamentals. If energy vol keeps fading, the biggest beneficiary is not just oil-sensitive equities; it is the entire duration-sensitive equity complex, because lower headline inflation expectations reduce the odds of an abrupt rates repricing and keep multiple expansion alive. That makes the current move most supportive for megacap growth and consumer discretionary names that were most vulnerable to a higher-for-longer oil shock.

The consumer data is more nuanced than the headline suggests: spending resilience in the face of higher gasoline prices implies households are still absorbing energy shocks, but that also means the inflation pass-through is not benign. If energy stays elevated for another few weeks, margin pressure will likely show up first in lower-income discretionary, airlines, and transport, while food/service inflation may lag but remain sticky. The key risk is that the market is underpricing how quickly a renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could flip sentiment from "manageable supply shock" to "global growth scare," especially with yields already grinding higher and policy uncertainty ahead of the Fed testimony.

The contrarian read is that the move in crude may be too complacent for a ceasefire-driven market. The path dependency matters: even a short-lived supply interruption can force inventory rebuilding, elevate tanker insurance and freight rates, and keep refined product margins volatile for weeks after spot crude retraces. That argues for staying long optionality on energy rather than chasing beta, because the left tail remains large while the right tail in equities may be capped if yields continue to drift up and the Fed narrative turns more hawkish.