Bitcoin falls to lowest level since April

Bitcoin slid to as low as $86,325.81 Thursday — its weakest level since April 21 — last trading around $86,690, as investors pulled back from risk assets after stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls (119,000 vs. 50,000 expected) trimmed the probability of a December Fed rate cut to roughly 40% per CME FedWatch. The fall was part of a broader crypto sell-off—XRP down about 2.3% below $2.00 and ether off more than 3% and trading well under $3,000, while dogecoin was unchanged—and helped weigh on equities despite a strong Nvidia report, reflecting overlap between AI-stock and bitcoin holders; bitcoin’s weakness also follows cascading liquidations of highly leveraged crypto positions in early October.

Analysis

Bitcoin declined to as low as $86,325.81 on Thursday — its weakest level since April 21 — and was last quoted around $86,690.11 as investors reduced exposure to risk assets after stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls (119,000 added in September versus 50,000 expected). The hotter jobs print cut the implied probability of a December Fed rate cut to roughly 40% per the CME FedWatch tool, removing a near-term easing catalyst that had supported risk assets.

The move was part of a broader crypto sell-off: XRP fell about 2.3% to below $2.00, ether dropped more than 3% to well under $3,000, and dogecoin was flat. Equities were pressured despite a standout Nvidia report because many traders who own AI-related stocks also hold bitcoin, creating cross-market spillovers that amplify downside in risk-off episodes.

Price weakness follows cascading liquidations of highly leveraged crypto positions in early October, indicating residual deleveraging risk and elevated volatility. The combination of reduced Fed easing odds, position crowding between AI equities and crypto, and prior forced liquidations increases the likelihood of further near-term downside unless macro expectations or liquidation dynamics change materially.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce or eliminate leveraged long crypto exposure and tighten stop-losses on spot positions given ongoing liquidation risk
• Hedge or trim correlated equity exposure to AI/tech names if maintaining crypto positions to limit cross-asset spillovers
• Monitor incoming macro data (payrolls) and CME FedWatch probabilities as primary short-term catalysts and adjust positioning if December cut odds move materially
• Defer fresh, sizeable crypto accumulation until there is clear evidence of stabilization and a sustained reduction in leveraged-liquidation activity