Will Macy's (M) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report?

Macy's (M) has consistently surpassed earnings estimates, averaging a 15.21% surprise over its last two reports, including a 14.29% beat in the most recent quarter. The department store operator's positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +7.53% combined with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) suggests a high probability of another earnings beat in its next report, expected September 3, 2025, positioning it as a potential candidate for continued positive earnings surprises based on Zacks' predictive model.

Analysis

Macy's (M) demonstrates a pattern of positive earnings surprises, with an average beat of 15.21% over its last two quarters. According to the provided data, this includes a 16.13% surprise in the penultimate quarter and a 14.29% surprise in the most recent one. The analysis heavily relies on the proprietary Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model as a forward-looking indicator. Macy's currently has a positive Earnings ESP of +7.53%, which suggests that the most recent analyst revisions are trending more bullish than the broader consensus. The combination of this positive ESP and the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) is cited as a strong predictor, historically leading to a positive earnings surprise nearly 70% of the time. This quantitative signal frames a bullish case for the company's upcoming earnings report on September 3, 2025, based on the premise that late-cycle analyst revisions are a more accurate reflection of near-term potential.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the positive Earnings ESP of +7.53% and a history of significant beats, investors could view the upcoming September 3, 2025, earnings report as a potential short-term positive catalyst.
• The stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) presents a mixed signal, suggesting investors should balance the bullish short-term earnings indicators against a more neutral fundamental outlook implied by the rating.
• It is prudent to recognize that this analysis is based on a proprietary model; therefore, investors should perform their own due diligence on the underlying fundamentals driving these analyst revisions rather than relying solely on the predictive signal.