Exclusive: US to launch new phase of Venezuela operations, sources say

The United States is poised to begin a new phase of Venezuela-related operations within days, with U.S. officials saying covert actions are likely first though timing, scope and whether President Trump has made a final decision remain unclear. Washington has built up significant military power in the Caribbean — including the carrier Gerald R. Ford (arrived Nov. 16), at least seven other warships, a nuclear submarine and F‑35s — authorized covert CIA activity and plans to designate the Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization on Monday, a move the administration says would enable strikes on Maduro-linked assets; U.S. counter‑drug strikes since September have totaled at least 21 strikes and killed at least 83 people, provoking human‑rights and allied concern. For markets and investors, the developments raise heightened geopolitical and operational risk in the region with potential impacts on Venezuelan oil assets, regional trade and air traffic (FAA warnings prompted airline cancellations), while legal and diplomatic backlash adds uncertainty to the outlook.

Analysis

U.S. officials told Reuters the United States is preparing a new phase of Venezuela-related operations to begin within days, with covert actions likely to be the first step although the timing, scope and whether President Trump has made a final decision remain unclear. The administration has authorized covert CIA activity and is weighing options that reportedly include attempts to overthrow President Nicolás Maduro; U.S. rhetoric links Maduro to narcotics trafficking while he denies the allegations.

Washington has massed significant military assets in the Caribbean — the carrier Gerald R. Ford arrived Nov. 16 and joined at least seven other warships, a nuclear submarine and F-35 aircraft — and U.S. forces have conducted at least 21 strikes on alleged drug boats since September that Reuters reports killed at least 83 people. The FAA issued a warning that prompted at least three international carriers to cancel Venezuela departures, while human rights groups and some U.S. allies have criticized U.S. strikes and raised legal concerns.

The administration plans to designate the Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization on Monday and has previously doubled the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million, moves the White House says expand options to strike assets and infrastructure. Market signals show a moderately negative, risk-off tone with elevated geopolitical impact (sentiment_score -0.6, market_impact_score 0.6), implying greater near-term volatility for Venezuelan oil assets, regional trade and carriers until policy clarity emerges.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce or hedge direct exposure to Venezuelan-linked oil and energy assets and consider trimming regional emerging-market positions that are sensitive to Caribbean geopolitical escalation,
• Monitor the Monday foreign terrorist organization designation of Cartel de los Soles and FAA/DoD advisories as near-term catalysts and be prepared to adjust positions intraday if military action or additional sanctions are announced,
• Use short-dated protective hedges (eg, puts or volatility positions) on energy names and regional banks to guard against a risk-off move, while selectively increasing exposure to global energy producers with minimal Venezuela operational risk,
• Avoid initiating positions in airlines or logistics firms with active Venezuela routes until airspace advisories and operational risks stabilize, and reassess counterparty and shipping-insurance exposures tied to Venezuelan trade