Joby Aviation: Revenue Acceleration Likely To Begin Next Year

Joby Aviation is demonstrating strong momentum, with its FAA Stage 4 certification now 70% complete on its side, positioning it for Type Inspection Authorization flights in 2025. The company strategically acquired Blade's passenger unit for up to $125 million, gaining crucial vertiport licenses for future operations. While initial commercial service in Dubai is progressing, US passenger operations face an additional regulatory hurdle—the Part 135 operating certificate—beyond FAA type certification, potentially delaying widespread launch. Despite this, analysts project over $1 billion in revenue by 2029, driven by Dubai operations and significant potential aircraft sales, including up to 200 aircraft to Saudi Arabia.

Analysis

Joby Aviation (JOBY) is demonstrating significant operational momentum, primarily through its progress with the FAA's Stage 4 certification, which is now 70% complete from the company's side and over 50% from the FAA's. This represents a tangible 10-point advancement over the prior quarter and keeps the company on track for piloted Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) flights in 2025 and FAA-piloted flights in early 2026. Strategically, Joby has bolstered its future commercial footprint by acquiring Blade's passenger unit for up to $125 million, securing crucial licenses for key vertiport routes in the U.S. and Europe. While the company is pre-revenue, its growth trajectory is underpinned by near-term commercial operations in Dubai, where vertiport construction has begun, and a long-term revenue forecast exceeding $1 billion by 2029. This forecast is supported by a substantial aircraft sales pipeline, including a potential $1 billion deal for up to 200 aircraft in Saudi Arabia and a JV with ANA in Japan. However, a key risk highlighted is the need for a Part 135 operating certificate after FAA type certification, an additional regulatory hurdle for U.S. passenger services that may not be fully priced in by the market and could shape commercial launch expectations toward the latter half of 2026.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider the tangible progress in FAA certification and the strategic acquisition of Blade's passenger unit as key de-risking events that strengthen Joby's position as a leader in the eVTOL space.
• It is critical to monitor the timeline for the Part 135 operating certificate, as this requirement, separate from the primary type certification, is a significant gating factor for the commencement of U.S. passenger revenue.
• Upcoming catalysts that could materially impact the stock include the confirmation of a commercial launch date in Dubai, the finalization of large-scale aircraft sales agreements in Saudi Arabia and Japan, and the visibility from demonstration flights at the 2025 Osaka Expo.
• Valuation models should account for two distinct revenue streams: high-margin aircraft manufacturing, evidenced by potential billion-dollar sales pipelines, and the air taxi operations, which provide a long-term, vertically integrated service model.