U.S. stocks closed modestly higher as megacap tech and semiconductors led a recovery—Nvidia rallied ahead of earnings (viewed as a bellwether for AI capex valuations) and Alphabet jumped after unveiling an upgraded Gemini AI model—while energy and crypto names lagged on a >2% drop in WTI and weaker Bitcoin. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' cancellation of the October payroll release (to be folded into November’s report on Dec. 16), together with hawkish October FOMC minutes, sharply reduced odds of a December rate cut to about 30%, sending the 10-year yield up to 4.13% and pressuring T-note prices (exacerbated by weak demand at a 20‑year auction). Q3 results have been robust—82% of reporting S&P firms beat estimates and aggregate earnings rose 14.6% y/y—and a heavy slate of delayed economic data this week creates upside risk to rates and potential further dispersion across cyclical, energy and AI-exposed names.
U.S. equities recovered modestly on Wednesday with the S&P 500 up +0.38%, the Dow +0.10% and the Nasdaq‑100 +0.56%; E‑mini S&P and Nasdaq futures rose ~+0.39% and +0.58% respectively. Nvidia gained >+2% ahead of its earnings—positioned as a bellwether for AI capex—and Alphabet jumped +3% after unveiling an upgraded Gemini model; strength in semiconductors (Broadcom, Lam, Applied, KLA up >+4%) underpinned the rally. Monetary‑policy and data developments limited upside: the BLS canceled the Oct payroll release and will fold those figures into the Nov report due Dec.16, which, together with hawkish Oct FOMC minutes, drove the probability of a Dec rate cut down to ~30% from 70% last week. The 10‑year yield rose to 4.131%, T‑note prices weakened and a weak 20‑year auction (bid‑to‑cover 2.41 vs 2.65 average) signaled softer Treasury demand; mortgage applications fell 5.2% while the 30‑year fixed rate ticked to 6.37%. Corporate results and sector dispersion remain pronounced: Q3 earnings have beaten estimates (82% beats; aggregate EPS +14.6% y/y vs +7.2% expected), while energy names retreated on a >2% drop in WTI and crypto stocks fell with Bitcoin down >3% (MSTR -9%). The heavy slate of delayed economic releases this week raises the risk of further volatility and rate re‑pricing, which will disproportionately affect interest‑sensitive and cyclical sectors.
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Overall Sentiment
mixed
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0.05
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