Corn Hits One Month High on Thursday

Corn futures closed higher on Thursday with 5-6 cent gains, supported by rising wheat, soybean, and a significant $3.25/barrel increase in crude oil, pushing the CmdtyView national average cash corn price to $3.87 1/4. Despite a USDA delay in export sales data, traders estimate 0.8-2 MMT of corn was sold. Globally, the International Grains Council projects steady 2025/26 corn production, with consumption up 2 MMT and overall stocks increasing 5 MMT to 299 MMT, largely due to higher 2024/25 stock levels.

Analysis

Corn futures posted 5-6 cent gains on Thursday, with the CmdtyView national average cash price increasing 5 cents to $3.87 1/4. This upward momentum was largely attributed to spillover support from strong performances in wheat and soybeans, coupled with a notable $3.25/barrel rise in crude oil. The average December close for October, at $4.19, now slightly surpasses last year's harvest price but remains 51 cents below the February price, suggesting a partial recovery from prior declines.

Despite the USDA's ongoing delay in Export Sales reporting, market traders estimate significant corn sales of 0.8-2 MMT for the week ending October 16th, indicating resilient demand. Globally, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts steady 2025/26 corn production, alongside a 2 MMT increase in consumption. However, overall world stocks are projected to grow by 5 MMT to 299 MMT, primarily driven by a 7 MMT increase in 2024/25 stock levels, suggesting ample supply.

The futures curve reflected this positive sentiment, with Dec 25 Corn closing at $4.28 (up 5 cents) and May 26 Corn at $4.49 1/4 (up 5 3/4 cents). The market's overall tone is assessed as "bullish" with a "moderately positive" sentiment, driven by immediate commodity strength and perceived demand, despite the longer-term outlook for increased global stocks.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should monitor broader commodity market movements, particularly in wheat, soybeans, and crude oil, as these are significant drivers of corn price action.
• Closely track the eventual release of USDA Export Sales data to confirm underlying demand strength, given current strong trader estimates despite reporting delays.
• Consider the long-term implications of increasing global corn stock projections from the IGC, which could temper significant upward price movements despite rising consumption.