Wheat Turns to Close Mostly Higher on Thursday

Wheat futures are mixed, with Chicago SRW and Kansas City HRW contracts showing slight gains, while Minneapolis spring wheat varies. USDA's Export Sales report revealed net reductions of 49,114 MT for the old crop, within analyst estimates, and new crop sales of 444,857 MT, a 5-week low, with significant purchases by unknown destinations, Nigeria, and Mexico. Monthly wheat exports in April reached a 4-year high of 2.198 MMT, a 22.17% increase from March, according to Census data.

Analysis

Wheat futures markets presented a mixed performance at midday Thursday, with Chicago SRW contracts registering gains of 2 to 3 cents and Kansas City HRW futures increasing by 1 to 2 cents in nearby contracts. Minneapolis spring wheat futures were varied, with July contracts up 1 ¾ cents while other contracts declined. This market activity is set against a backdrop of anticipated rainfall in southern Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, which poses a potential risk of slowing down early harvest operations. The USDA's Export Sales report revealed net reductions of 49,114 MT for the 2024/25 marketing year, a figure within the consensus range of analysts' estimates. However, new crop sales for 2025/26, amounting to 444,857 MT, were noted to be at a 5-week low and positioned in the lower segment of the 300,000 to 800,000 MT estimate range, with primary buyers including unknown destinations (140,500 MT), Nigeria (131,000 MT), and Mexico (108,400 MT). Contrasting with the subdued new crop sales, April's monthly wheat exports, according to Census data, surged to 2.198 MMT (80 million bushels), a 4-year high for the month and a 22.17% increase compared to March, indicating robust recent export demand.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor upcoming weather developments in key U.S. wheat-producing regions, as significant rainfall could delay harvest progress and influence near-term supply dynamics.
• The divergence between the 5-week low in new crop export sales and the strong 4-year high in April's monthly exports necessitates careful scrutiny of future export data to ascertain the sustainability of international demand.
• Given the mixed signals from futures markets, weather outlook, and varied export sales figures, a cautious approach is warranted, focusing on further data points to clarify market direction.