Corn futures rose 6 to 7.5 cents across most contracts, driven by a weaker US dollar and a rebound in ethanol production, which increased by 43,000 bpd to 1.036 million bpd according to the EIA. Ethanol stocks also saw a draw of 501,000 barrels. Export sales are expected to show 0.7 to 1.6 MMT in old crop business for the week of May 15, while Agroconsult estimates Brazil's second corn crop at 112.9 MMT, significantly above CONAB's previous estimate.
Corn futures registered gains of 6 to 7 ½ cents across most contracts, primarily driven by a weaker US dollar index and a significant rebound in ethanol production. According to the EIA's weekly update for May 16, ethanol output rose by 43,000 barrels per day to 1.036 million bpd, signaling increased corn consumption. This was further supported by a 501,000-barrel draw in ethanol stocks, which fell to 24.944 million barrels, with Midwest stocks notably decreasing by 809,000 barrels, indicating robust regional demand. While refiner inputs of ethanol marginally declined by 10,000 bpd week-over-week to 919,000 bpd, the overall ethanol sector data, particularly the production increase and stock draw, points to a supportive demand environment for corn. Attention now turns to Thursday's Export Sales report, anticipated to show old crop sales between 0.7 to 1.6 million metric tons (MMT) and new crop sales from 50,000 MT to 500,000 MT for the week of May 15. However, a potentially counterbalancing factor is Agroconsult's higher estimate for Brazil's second corn crop at 112.9 MMT, considerably above CONAB's 99.8 MMT forecast, which, if realized, could temper global price enthusiasm.
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