Palantir reported a blowout Q3 FY25—total revenue +63% YoY, non‑GAAP operating margin 51%, U.S. commercial revenue +121% to $397M and U.S. commercial TCV +212% to $843M—then raised FY25 revenue guidance to $4.4B (≈54% YoY) and boosted forward margin targets, signaling continued enterprise AI traction and accelerating deal sizes. The author argues Nvidia’s strong Q3 and bullish multi‑year guidance, plus its strategic integration with Palantir (CUDA/CUDA‑X and Nemotron into Palantir’s Ontology), should mute recent AI‑narrative pessimism triggered by macro liquidity worries and Michael Burry puts and restore sentiment toward AI names. Valuation concerns are countered with rapid earnings and revenue upgrades (forward EPS +24%, multi‑year revenue revisions) and a Rule of 40 score of 114, leading the author to reiterate a Buy with a $200 price target (~21% upside), while cautioning that sector moves remain vulnerable to sentiment and broader market technicals.
Palantir delivered a blowout Q3 FY25: total revenue grew 63% year‑over‑year, non‑GAAP operating margin came in at 51%, U.S. commercial revenue rose 121% to $397 million and U.S. commercial total contract value expanded 212% to $843 million, while management raised FY25 revenue guidance to $4.4 billion (implying ~54% YoY growth) and lifted forward non‑GAAP margin targets toward 49%. The company reports accelerating large‑deal momentum (more $1M/$5M/$10M wins) and reported forward EPS revisions of +24.39% and multi‑year revenue estimate upgrades for FY25–FY27 (roughly +13.1%, +23.1%, +27.7% respectively), supporting the author’s view of durable top‑line and operating‑leverage expansion. Nvidia’s Q3 print — revenue ~3.3% ahead of guidance, Q4 revenue guidance ~300 basis points above consensus and next‑year revenue expected to grow at least 54% — and its announced integration (CUDA‑X and Nemotron into Palantir’s Ontology) strengthen the strategic case that Palantir’s AIP could be an application/inference layer beneficiary. Valuation remains a risk point: Palantir’s forward P/E is ~166 (down from ~250), the author models a path to a P/E of 115 and a $200 price target (~21% upside), but notes short‑term sensitivity to AI sentiment, Michael Burry positioning, liquidity/monetary conditions and whether the S&P can clear its 20‑day moving average.
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Overall Sentiment
strongly positive
Sentiment Score
0.65
Ticker Sentiment
