Wheat Posting Slight Weakness to Start the Week

Wheat futures displayed mixed trading at midday, with most CBT soft red wheat and MPLS spring wheat contracts seeing fractional losses, while KC HRW futures posted gains. USDA data showed weekly wheat export shipments at 505,096 MT for the week ending October 2, a 42.18% decline week-over-week but a 38.46% increase year-over-year, contributing to a 16.67% rise in marketing year exports to 10.177 MMT. This export activity was further bolstered by Saudi Arabia's recent purchase of an estimated 455,000 MT of wheat.

Analysis

The wheat complex is showing losses across most contracts at midday. CBT soft red wheat futures are down 1 to 2 cents so far on Monday. KC HRW futures are trading with 2 to 3 cent gains in most contracts. MPLS spring wheat futures are showing fractional losses across most contracts at midday. USDA tallied wheat export shipments at 505,096 MT (18.56 mbu) during the week ending on October 2. That was 42.18% below the week prior but 38.46% above the same week last year. South Korea was the top destination of 177,333 MT, with 60,875 MT headed to Japan and 54,989 to Malaysia. Marketing year exports for 2025/26 are now 10.177 MMT (373.95 mbu) since June 1, which is now 16.67% above the same period last year. Saudi Arabia purchased an estimated 455,000 MT of wheat in their tender that closed on Friday, with results reported on Monday. Dec 25 CBOT Wheat is at $5.13 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents, Mar 26 CBOT Wheat is at $5.31, down 1 1/2 cents, Dec 25 KCBT Wheat is at $4.94 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents, Mar 26 KCBT Wheat is at $5.16, down 2 1/2 cents, Dec 25 MGEX Wheat is at $5.59 1/2, down 1/4 cent, Mar 26 MGEX Wheat is at $5.79, down 1/2 cent, On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. The wheat complex is currently exhibiting mixed trading activity, with fractional losses in CBT soft red wheat and MPLS spring wheat futures alongside slight gains in KC HRW, reflecting a balanced, albeit cautious, market sentiment. Despite this intraday weakness, underlying demand fundamentals appear robust, as evidenced by USDA data showing weekly wheat export shipments at 505,096 MT, a significant 38.46% increase year-over-year, even with a 42.18% week-over-week decline. Marketing year exports for 2025/26 have also shown considerable strength, reaching 10.177 MMT since June 1, which represents a 16.67% increase compared to the same period last year. Key export destinations for the week ending October 2 included South Korea (177,333 MT), Japan (60,875 MT), and Malaysia (54,989 MT), indicating diverse global demand. Further reinforcing the positive demand outlook, Saudi Arabia recently completed a tender for an estimated 455,000 MT of wheat, a new purchasing signal that adds to the sustained marketing year export pace. Current futures prices like Dec 25 CBOT Wheat at $5.13 3/4 and Mar 26 CBOT Wheat at $5.31 show minor declines, suggesting the market may be digesting recent data or reacting to short-term technical factors despite strong fundamental support.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor global wheat export trends and upcoming tender results, as these provide critical signals for sustained demand.
• Given the robust year-over-year export growth and recent significant purchases, consider current fractional price dips in wheat futures as potential entry points for long-biased positions.
• Evaluate the impact of new international demand, such as the Saudi Arabian tender, on future price discovery, while remaining aware of potential short-term volatility indicated by the mixed intraday movements.