Abacus Global reaffirms asset values, receives analyst backing amid short-seller attack

Abacus Global (ABL) refuted claims from a short-seller report alleging inflated asset valuations, asserting its valuation process is sound and not overly reliant on a single life expectancy provider. An independent review by Lewis and Ellis validated Abacus's valuation, estimating the portfolio value at $449 million, closely aligning with Abacus's reported $446 million; several equity research firms have also reiterated their support for the company, which reported 40% realized gains on $126 million in deployed capital in Q1 and announced a $20 million stock buyback plan.

Analysis

Abacus Global Management (NASDAQ:ABL) has mounted a robust defense against a recent short-seller report, which alleged inflated asset valuations primarily due to purported over-reliance on a single life expectancy provider, Lapetus Solutions. The company categorically denied these claims, stating its valuation process is sound and not dependent on Lapetus. Crucially, Abacus commissioned an independent actuarial review by Lewis and Ellis, which, excluding all Lapetus estimates, valued its life settlement portfolio at $449 million as of March 31, 2025, a figure closely aligning with Abacus's internally reported $446 million. This external validation, conducted by American Academy of Actuaries-qualified professionals using a discount rate methodology, lends significant credibility to Abacus's position. Despite the short report triggering a notable 19% decline in ABL's share price last week, several prominent equity research firms, including Autonomous/Bernstein, B. Riley, Piper Sandler, and TD Bank, have reiterated their support. Abacus further substantiated its valuation integrity by highlighting its mark-to-market methodology, strong Q1 performance featuring 40% realized gains on $126 million in deployed capital (with valuations audited within a 2% margin of prior estimates), and a consistent 20-year track record of positive returns. In a move to bolster investor confidence and counter the short attack, Abacus announced a $20 million stock buyback program and indicated potential legal action. The anticipated inclusion in the Russell 2000 and 3000 indexes in August is also presented as a positive upcoming catalyst.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider the strong independent validation of Abacus's asset valuations by Lewis and Ellis and the reaffirmation of support from multiple sell-side analysts as key counterpoints to the short-seller's allegations.
• The announcement of a $20 million stock buyback program and the upcoming Russell index inclusion in August could provide positive catalysts for ABL's share price, potentially mitigating recent losses.
• While Abacus's rebuttal appears comprehensive, investors should remain cognizant of the potential for continued share price volatility stemming from the short-seller attack and monitor any developments regarding the company's threatened legal action.