Invitation to Conference Call – Interim Report Byggmax Group January 1 – March 31, 2026

Byggmax Group will publish its Q1 2026 interim report on 17 April at 07:45 CET and host an English conference call the same day at 10:30 CET; CEO Karl Sandlund and CFO Helena Nathhorst will present. A presentation will be posted on the investor website from 08:30 CET and local/UK dial-in numbers are provided. This is a routine investor notice with no financial figures or guidance disclosed.

Analysis

Byggmax is at an inflection point where near-term earnings will be interpreted less as a standalone retail print and more as a read-through on Sweden/Scandinavia DIY demand, inventory normalization and distribution leverage. A 100–250bp swing in gross margin (driven by timber/board price moves and DC efficiencies) would translate into ~10–20% operating earnings sensitivity on current small-cap bases, so management commentary on SKU-level price/mix and freight is the high-leverage datapoint.

Second-order winners from an upside surprise are 1) regional value-format competitors who can copy supply-chain tweaks (faster replenishment, centralized cross-dock) and 2) suppliers of private-label building materials where Byggmax can push volumes without ceding margin; losers are high-cost, full-service builders who depend on robust new-build activity. Conversely, a downside will amplify financial deleverage: weaker DIY demand compresses turn, tying up working capital and raising short-term refinancing/credit risks for smaller suppliers in the chain.

Near-term catalysts: the release (days) will move equity/option volatility; follow-up commentary over the next 1–3 months on promotional cadence, e‑commerce conversion and Q2 seasonal cadence will determine whether any beat is sustainable. Tail risks over 6–18 months include a sharper-than-expected drop in renovation activity if mortgage rates remain elevated or timber prices rebound materially (>10%), which would reverse margin tailwinds and force markdown-led comps. The consensus tends to treat Byggmax as a pure retail comp — focus instead on inventory days, freight per order and private-label mix as the three real numbers that will change valuation materially.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Event-vol trade (days): Buy a near-term straddle on BYG-B expiring 7–10 trading days after the report to capture a likely IV pop; size 1–2% notional. Take profits if implied vol rises >40% relative to the 30-day baseline or if the stock gaps >15% on the print. Risk: fast IV crush if print is routine; reward: asymmetric if management surprises on margins/reorder trends.
• Directional pair (weeks–months): Long BYG-B / Short BEIJ-B (or nearest listed Nordic building-material peer) sized to net-zero beta. Thesis: Byggmax leverages lower-cost, value retail and e‑commerce scale faster; if margins expand 150–200bps this trade can generate 20–35% gross return in 3–6 months. Stop-loss: 12% on BYG-B leg or if inventory days increase quarter-over-quarter.
• Opportunistic buy (months): If the report shows inventory normalization and stable e‑commerce conversion, accumulate BYG-B to a 2–4% portfolio weight over 4–8 weeks — expect 30–50% upside if management converts margin tailwinds into sustained EBIT growth and guidance is raised. Risk management: hedge with short-dated put options if available (cost budget 1–2% of position) to limit 30–40% downside on a severe housing shock.
• Watchlist trigger (days–months): Set an alert for timber/OSB futures +10% move or a Swedish mortgage-rate surprise (Riksbank commentary) — either would be a catalyst to unwind longs and rotate into defensive building suppliers. If triggered, reduce BYG-B exposure by 50% within 48 hours.